The Mediterranean basin was identified decades ago as a potential hotspot region under global warming, where droughts and floods keep increasing. However, uncertainties about how the water cycle is being affected by the climate change still remain. Henceforth, this study analyses the recent variability of winter precipitation (WP) in Andalusia, the southern Iberian Peninsula (IP), and their relationship with the Atlantic and Mediterranean sources. For that purpose, two representative teleconnection patterns were used: the NAO (Atlantic influence) and WeMO (Mediterranean) indexes. The results of this contribution revealed that WP mostly decreased in the target region, only increasing over south-eastern Andalusia. Also, the influence area of WeMO increased and its modulation magnitude in WP behaviour. In addition, series of these atmospheric patterns presented a breakpoint since 1980s towards NAO+ and WeMO-. Therefore, this contribution concludes that Andalusia can be divided into three areas based on the WP behaviour: (1) NAO-correlated (WeMO uncorrelated) where WP decreased; (2) NAO and WeMO-correlated, where WP did not change; and (3) WeMO correlated (NAO uncorrelated) where WP increased. Likewise, the extent of those regions mostly is determinate by geographical features. The orography does not allow the enhancement of the WeMO influence across large areas of Andalusia. As a result, WeMO- cannot compensate reductions of WP caused by NAO+, which concentrates WP reductions on its windward (most areas of Betic Mountains, where WeMO uncorrelated). Meanwhile, WeMO- promote WP increases on its windward in the Betic Mountains (eastern slopes, south-eastern Andalusia); and coastal areas/Guadalquivir Valley where Mediterranean influence does not find a barrier effect caused by the relief.

几十年前，地中海盆地被确定为全球变暖下潜在的热点地区，那里的干旱和洪水持续增加。但是，关于水循环如何受到气候变化影响的不确定性仍然存在。此后，本研究分析了安达卢西亚，伊比利亚半岛南部（IP）冬季降水（WP）的近期变化及其与大西洋和地中海水源的关系。为此，使用了两种代表性的远程连接模式：NAO（大西洋影响力）和WeMO（地中海）指数。这一贡献的结果表明，WP在目标区域大部分下降，仅在安达卢西亚东南部增加。而且，WeMO的影响范围增加了，并且其在WP行为中的调制幅度也增加了。此外，自1980年代以来，一系列这些大气模式呈现出了NAO +和WeMO-的转折点。因此，该贡献得出的结论是，基于WP行为，安达卢西亚可以分为三个区域：（1）NAO相关（WeMO不相关），WP降低；（2）NAO和WeMO相关，但WP不变；（3）WP增加时与WeMO相关（NAO不相关）。同样，这些地区的范围主要由地理特征决定。此地形不允许在较大的安达卢西亚地区增强WeMO的影响力。结果，WeMO-无法补偿NAO +造成的WP减少，这将WP的减少集中在迎风面（BMO的大部分地区，WeMO不相关）。同时，WeMO促进了Betic山（东坡，东南安达卢西亚）；以及沿海地区/瓜达尔基维尔河谷，地中海地区的影响并未找到由救济造成的障碍。