ABSTRACT

The paper identifies and measures the economic consequences of the rapid saturation of commercial real estate markets in Poland. We document a negative link between the growing concentration of office buildings in the Polish real estate submarkets and building-level vacancy rates. Slower absorption in the areas that are more densely built up is accompanied by lower asking rents. The impact of saturation in real estate markets on building-level fundamentals is heterogenous across different classes of real estate assets, and high-quality buildings are less vulnerable than the low-quality buildings. Our findings demonstrate that higher density in office space harms investors.

摘要

本文确定并衡量了波兰商业房地产市场迅速饱和的经济后果。我们记录了波兰房地产子市场中办公楼的日益集中与建筑空置率之间的负相关关系。在人口密度较高的地区，土地吸收速度较慢，而租金要价较低。房地产市场的饱和度对建筑物级别的基本要素的影响在不同类别的房地产资产中是异质的，并且优质建筑物比劣质建筑物的脆弱性小。我们的发现表明，办公空间中较高的密度会损害投资者。