Due to the unprecedented decline in the demand for oil and price collapse, major oil companies increasingly face a strategic trade-off between i) maintaining investments in their core business, ii) preserving shareholder dividend payments, and iii) investing for the energy transition. This paper investigates this strategic trilemma, assessing the responses of the eight oil majors. It models their cash flow break evens and required oil prices to sustain investments and dividends and evaluates their corporate strategies under the current low oil price scenario. Analysis shows that in a low oil price setting, majors may no longer achieve all three strategic objectives in unison but may have to pick two out of three at the maximum. Results reveal a strong impact of the companies’ region of incorporation with European-based oil companies embracing investments for the energy transition, whereas companies in America are continuing to focus on their hydrocarbon businesses and shareholder distributions.

由于石油需求的空前下降和价格暴跌，主要石油公司日益面临以下战略权衡：i）维持对其核心业务的投资，ii）保留股东的股利支付，以及iii）投资进行能源转型。本文研究了这一战略困境，评估了八个石油专业的反应。它模拟了他们的现金流量收支平衡和所需的油价以维持投资和股息，并评估了在当前低油价情况下的公司战略。分析表明，在低油价的情况下，专业人士可能不再能够一致地实现所有三个战略目标，而可能最多只能选择三分之二。