What is the impact of population aging on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus over the business cycle? We address this question by estimating state-dependent fiscal multipliers in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). A government spending shock is identified as a forecast error of government spending and its output effect is estimated by using the local projection method. We find that there is no effect of population aging on output effects of fiscal spending shocks in expansionary times, whereas in recessions the output effects of fiscal spending shocks are weakened as population ages. This result points to important policy implications in that population aging would call for a larger fiscal stimulus to support aggregate demand during recession. Thus, this requires a larger fiscal space to allow for a wider swing of the fiscal position without creating concerns for fiscal sustainability.

在整个经济周期中，人口老龄化对财政刺激有效性的影响是什么？我们通过估计经济合作与发展组织（OECD）成员国中依赖国家的财政乘数来解决这个问题。政府支出冲击被确定为政府支出的预测误差，其产出效果通过使用局部预测方法进行估算。我们发现人口老龄化对扩张时期的财政支出冲击的产出影响没有影响，而在衰退时期，随着人口老龄化，财政支出冲击的产出影响会减弱。这一结果表明了重要的政策含义，因为人口老龄化将要求采取更大的财政刺激措施，以支持经济衰退期间的总需求。从而，