We document a novel pattern that campaign goal amounts set by entrepreneurs on Kickstarter exhibit clear clustering at round numbers. We propose that the round number heuristic, a tendency to adopt round numbers as cognitive shortcuts when facing complicated and uncertain situations, may explain the clustering pattern and predict campaign outcomes. Based on 162,863 campaigns between 2009 and 2017, we find a negative relation between the use of round goal amounts and the likelihood of campaign success. Our findings suggest that setting a round number goal conveys useful information about entrepreneur quality that could be used by campaign backers or platforms.

我们记录了一种新颖的模式，即企业家在Kickstarter上设定的竞选目标金额显示出明显的整数集。我们提出，轮数启发法（一种在面对复杂和不确定的情况时倾向于采用轮数作为认知捷径的趋势）可以解释聚类模式并预测竞选结果。根据2009年至2017年之间的162,863个广告系列，我们发现圆形目标金额的使用与广告系列成功的可能性之间存在负相关关系。我们的发现表明，设定整数目标可以传达有关企业家素质的有用信息，这些信息可以由竞选支持者或平台使用。