This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic labor market effects of one of the largest forced population movements in history, the mass inflow of eight million German expellees into West Germany after World War II. The expellee inflow was distributed very asymmetrically across two West German regions. We develop a dynamic equilibrium model that closely fits two decades of historical data on the regional unemployment differential and the regional migration rate. Both variables increase dramatically after the expellee inflow and decline only gradually over the next decade. The long-lasting adjustment process implies losses in the lifetime labor income of native workers that are not covered by conventional steady state analyses. Regional migration serves as an important adjustment margin for native workers to insure against local labor supply shocks.

中文翻译：

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区域劳动力市场如何适应移民？战后德国的动态分析


本文全面分析了历史上最大规模的强迫人口流动之一——二战后八百万德国流亡者大规模流入西德——对劳动力市场的动态影响。被驱逐者的流入在西德的两个地区分布非常不对称。我们开发了一个动态均衡模型，该模型紧密贴合二十年的区域失业率差异和区域迁移率的历史数据。这两个变量在被驱逐者流入后急剧增加，并在接下来的十年中逐渐下降。长期的调整过程意味着本土工人终生劳动收入的损失，这是传统稳态分析未涵盖的。区域移民是本地工人抵御当地劳动力供应冲击的重要调整余地。