A popular and contemporary use of numerical groundwater models is to estimate the discrete relation between groundwater extraction and surface-water/groundwater exchange. Previously, the concept of a “capture map” has been put forward as a means to effectively summarize this relation for decision-making consumption. While capture maps have enjoyed success in the environmental simulation industry, they are deterministic, ignoring uncertainty in the underlying model. Furthermore, capture maps are not typically calculated in a manner that facilitates analysis of varying combinations of extraction locations and/or reaches. That is, they are typically constructed with focus on a single reach or group of reaches. The former of these limitations is important for conveying risk to decision makers and stakeholders, while the latter is important for decision-making support related to surface-water management, where future foci may include reaches that were not the focus of the original capture analysis. Herein, we use the concept of a response matrix to generalize the theory of the capture-map approach to estimate spatially discrete streamflow depletion potential. We also use first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation techniques with the concept of “risk shifting” to place capture maps and streamflow depletion potential in a stochastic, risk-based framework. Our approach is demonstrated for an integrated groundwater/surface-water model of the lower San Antonio River, Texas, USA.

中文翻译：

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扩展捕获图概念以估计离散和基于风险的水流消耗潜力

数值地下水模型的流行和现代用途是估计地下水提取与地表水/地下水交换之间的离散关系。此前，已经提出了“捕获地图”的概念，作为一种有效概括这种关系以供决策消费的手段。虽然捕获地图在环境模拟行业中取得了成功，但它们是确定性的，忽略了基础模型中的不确定性。此外，捕获地图通常不是以有助于分析提取位置和/或范围的不同组合的方式计算的。也就是说，它们的构建通常侧重于单个河段或一组河段。前者对于将风险传达给决策者和利益相关者很重要，而后者对于与地表水管理相关的决策支持很重要，未来的重点可能包括原始捕获分析不关注的河段。在这里，我们使用响应矩阵的概念来概括捕获图方法的理论，以估计空间离散的水流耗竭潜力。我们还使用具有“风险转移”概念的一阶、二阶矩不确定性估计技术，将捕获图和水流消耗潜力置于随机的、基于风险的框架中。我们的方法在美国德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥河下游的地下水/地表水综合模型中得到了证明。我们使用响应矩阵的概念来概括捕获图方法的理论，以估计空间离散的水流耗竭潜力。我们还使用具有“风险转移”概念的一阶、二阶矩不确定性估计技术，将捕获图和水流消耗潜力置于随机的、基于风险的框架中。我们的方法在美国德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥河下游的地下水/地表水综合模型中得到了证明。我们使用响应矩阵的概念来概括捕获图方法的理论，以估计空间离散的水流耗竭潜力。我们还使用具有“风险转移”概念的一阶、二阶矩不确定性估计技术，将捕获图和水流消耗潜力置于随机的、基于风险的框架中。我们的方法在美国德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥河下游的地下水/地表水综合模型中得到了证明。