The growing popularity of electric and hybrid vehicles has led to a sudden increase in demand for batteries needed for their construction. The increasing quantity of batteries produced and placed on the market involves important criticalities related to the consumption of some critical raw materials, such as rare earths (REEs), and the end-of-life disposal. In this scenario, the possibility of recycling and the development of a circular economy model can play a fundamental role, reducing critical issues related to the depletion of REEs. This study aims to assess the circularity potential of REEs in the vehicle batteries industry, investigating the potential of a closed-loop recycling system in the European context. In this analysis, the study was conducted in two different phases: 1) A literature review, for establishing the knowledge required for modeling a proper circular economy system, including commercial recycling processes, industrial applications, market trends, European policies and recycling targets; and 2) Basing on the state-of-art framework derived from the literature review, the final assessment of the circularity potential of REEs over a time horizon of thirty years and the discussion of possible benefits related to the considered circular economy system. As a result, a closed-loop recycling system is modeled and the final assessment of the circularity potential shows how: 1) The current recovery technology, along with appropriate recycling policies, is able to reduce the future demand of REEs as early as from 2025; 2) High collection and recovery rates allow to contrast uncertainties in REEs supply chain; and 3) The recovery of REEs is a key process to ensure the economic sustainability of the entire recycling process. These results provide the evidence that an appropriate circular economy system for vehicle battery industry can lead to benefits not only in terms of supply risk reduction but also in relation to the preservation of natural resources, implying one step further towards a sustainable mobility.

电动和混合动力汽车的日益普及导致其构造所需电池的需求突然增加。越来越多的电池生产和投放市场涉及与一些关键原材料（例如稀土（REE））的消耗和报废处理有关的重要问题。在这种情况下，回收的可能性和循环经济模型的发展可以发挥根本作用，从而减少与REE消耗相关的关键问题。这项研究旨在评估稀土在汽车电池行业中的循环潜力，并研究在欧洲范围内闭环回收系统的潜力。在此分析中，研究分两个不同阶段进行：1）文献综述，建立建模合适的循环经济系统所需的知识，包括商业回收流程，工业应用，市场趋势，欧洲政策和回收目标；2）基于文献综述的最新框架，对稀土在30年内的循环潜力进行最终评估，并讨论与所考虑的循环经济体系有关的可能收益。结果，对一个闭环回收系统进行了建模，对圆形潜力的最终评估表明：1）当前的回收技术，加上适当的回收政策，能够从2025年开始减少稀土的未来需求; 2）高回收率可以对比稀土供应链中的不确定性；3）REE的回收是确保整个回收过程的经济可持续性的关键过程。这些结果提供了证据，证明一种适用于汽车电池行业的循环经济系统不仅可以降低供应风险，而且可以带来与自然资源保护相关的收益，这意味着朝着可持续交通发展迈进了一步。