Context

The urban food security is vulnerable to disturbance along food supply chains because of the relatively long ‘food miles’ and cities' reliance on imported food. Urban food security may be at risk during a pandemic because of the implications of the pandemic on the multiple nodes of a food supply chain, including workforce availability, import availability and consumer demand.

Objective

This study aimed to investigate the effects of a hypothetical pandemic, typical of what might be seen during other similar market disruptions as well, on the urban food supply chain using Singapore, a city-state, as a case study.

Methods

Through a system dynamics approach, we simulated the effects of a hypothetical pandemic on the shortage and wastage of vegetables under different scenarios (multiple pandemic waves of different maximum infectivity, consumer hoarding behaviour and import cap). Fresh produce, such as vegetables, presents a unique case compared to grains and canned food because of its relatively short shelf-life which makes stockpiling difficult.

Results & Conclusions

The comparison of the different scenarios suggested that hoarding behaviour was the main cause of the food shortage rather than an approximately 25% reduction on the vegetable imports during a pandemic. Furthermore, reducing the maximum infectivity generally reduced shortage and wastage. The key leverage points identified were the import cap and the extent of hoarding behaviour during crisis times rather than supplier inventories. Our results suggested that during pandemics or similar catastrophes, more effort should be spent on reducing consumer hoarding behaviour rather than increasing vegetable inventories among suppliers. Our study may provide directions for future pandemic planning to improve cities' food security.

中文翻译：

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粮食安全对城市​​来说是一种幻想吗？大流行期间评估城市食品供应链扰动的系统动力学方法

语境

由于相对较长的“食品里程”和城市对进口食品的依赖，城市食品安全容易受到食品供应链上的干扰。在大流行期间，由于大流行对粮食供应链的多个节点（包括劳动力供应，进口供应和消费者需求）的影响，城市粮食安全可能处于危险之中。

目的

这项研究旨在以城市国家新加坡为例，研究假设性大流行对城市食品供应链的影响，这种大流行也是其他类似市场扰乱期间的典型现象。

方法

通过系统动力学方法，我们模拟了假设性大流行对不同情况下蔬菜短缺和浪费的影响（多次大流行，最大传染性，消费者ho积行为和进口上限不同）。与谷物和罐头食品相比，蔬菜等新鲜农产品具有独特的优势，因为其相对较短的保质期使其难以堆存。

结果与结论

对不同情况的比较表明，ard积行为是造成食物短缺的主要原因，而不是大流行期间蔬菜进口量减少了约25％。此外，降低最大传染性通常可以减少短缺和浪费。确定的关键杠杆点是进口限额和危机时期of积行为的程度，而不是供应商的库存。我们的结果表明，在大流行或类似灾难期间，应花更多的精力减少消费者的consumer积行为，而不是增加供应商之间的蔬菜库存。我们的研究可能为未来的大流行规划提供指导，以改善城市的粮食安全。