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Drivers of Infectious Disease Seasonality: Potential Implications for COVID-19
Journal of Biological Rhythms ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-24 , DOI: 10.1177/0748730420987322
N. Kronfeld-Schor 1 , T. J. Stevenson 2 , S. Nickbakhsh 3 , E. S. Schernhammer 4, 5 , X. C. Dopico 6 , T. Dayan 7 , M. Martinez 8 , B. Helm 2, 9
Affiliation  

Not 1 year has passed since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its emergence, great uncertainty has surrounded the potential for COVID-19 to establish as a seasonally recurrent disease. Many infectious diseases, including endemic human coronaviruses, vary across the year. They show a wide range of seasonal waveforms, timing (phase), and amplitudes, which differ depending on the geographical region. Drivers of such patterns are predominantly studied from an epidemiological perspective with a focus on weather and behavior, but complementary insights emerge from physiological studies of seasonality in animals, including humans. Thus, we take a multidisciplinary approach to integrate knowledge from usually distinct fields. First, we review epidemiological evidence of environmental and behavioral drivers of infectious disease seasonality. Subsequently, we take a chronobiological perspective and discuss within-host changes that may affect susceptibility, morbidity, and mortality from infectious diseases. Based on photoperiodic, circannual, and comparative human data, we not only identify promising future avenues but also highlight the need for further studies in animal models. Our preliminary assessment is that host immune seasonality warrants evaluation alongside weather and human behavior as factors that may contribute to COVID-19 seasonality, and that the relative importance of these drivers requires further investigation. A major challenge to predicting seasonality of infectious diseases are rapid, human-induced changes in the hitherto predictable seasonality of our planet, whose influence we review in a final outlook section. We conclude that a proactive multidisciplinary approach is warranted to predict, mitigate, and prevent seasonal infectious diseases in our complex, changing human-earth system.



中文翻译:

传染病季节性的驱动因素:对COVID-19的潜在影响

自严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)出现以来不到一年,这是2019年冠状病毒病的病原体(COVID-19)。自从它出现以来,巨大的不确定性围绕着COVID-19被确定为季节性复发性疾病的可能性。全年都有许多传染病,包括地方性人类冠状病毒。它们显示了各种季节性波形,时间(相位)和幅度,这些幅度随地理区域的不同而不同。主要从流行病学角度研究这种模式的驱动因素,并着眼于天气和行为,但互补的见解是从动物(包括人类)的季节性生理研究中得出的。因此,我们采用多学科方法来整合通常来自不同领域的知识。第一,我们回顾了传染病季节变化的环境和行为驱动因素的流行病学证据。随后,我们从时间生物学的角度讨论了宿主内部的变化,这些变化可能会影响传染病的易感性,发病率和死亡率。基于光周期的,周期性的和比较的人类数据,我们不仅确定了有希望的未来途径,而且强调了需要在动物模型中进行进一步研究的必要性。我们的初步评估是,宿主免疫的季节性需要与天气和人类行为一起评估,以作为可能导致COVID-19季节性的因素,并且这些驱动因素的相对重要性需要进一步调查。预测传染病季节性的主要挑战是迅速的,人类迄今为止在我们星球上可预测的季节性变化,我们将在最后的展望部分中回顾其影响。我们得出的结论是,在我们不断变化的复杂地球系统中,必须采取积极的多学科方法来预测,缓解和预防季节性传染病。

更新日期:2021-01-25
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