This paper uses fare changes in Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey to estimate the price elasticity of demand for urban rail transit. In two of the cases there is a significant fare increase (30%+), and in the third there is a 60-day fare holiday. Ridership responds sharply in the expected direction in all three cities, implying price elasticities which range across cities from −.23 to −0.32. In addition, there is suggestive evidence that the temporary fare holiday led to a higher baseline level of ridership. These estimates are directly relevant for policymakers considering alternative pricing structures for urban rail. The paper discusses the relevant economic considerations and then shows how the estimated elasticities can be used to perform policy counterfactuals.

本文使用墨西哥城，瓜达拉哈拉和蒙特雷的票价变动来估计城市轨道交通需求的价格弹性。在两种情况下，票价大幅上涨（超过30％），在第三种情况下，票价假期为60天。在所有三个城市中，骑行者对预期方向的反应都非常强烈，这意味着价格弹性在整个城市范围从-.23到-0.32。此外，有暗示性的证据表明，临时票价假期导致较高的乘车基准水平。这些估计与考虑城市轨道交通其他定价结构的决策者直接相关。本文讨论了相关的经济考虑因素，然后展示了如何将估计的弹性用于执行政策反事实。