Since society is facing some major transformations, it is essential to understand how long-term perspectives in an uncertain context are shaped and the conditions and strategies used to enable their materialisation (Van Assche, Verschraegen, & Gruezmacher, this issue). This paper analyses how the future perspective of the Dutch Delta Committee amidst deep (longterm) uncertainty was shaped. It focusses on (the interrelation between) the government arrangement, the construction of long-term (un)certainty and the actual responses to long-term uncertainty while formulating future perspectives and a corresponding policy advice. The paper describes and analyses six different uncertainty responses that were used by the Dutch Delta Committee, i.e., embracing uncertainty, denying uncertainty, reducing uncertainty, delegating uncertainty, aligning uncertainty to the present and camouflaging uncertainty. We observed that the majority of the uncertainty responses were ways to guarantee progress in the face of uncertainty. Other responses were aimed towards creating a sense of urgency to act or towards postponing, delaying or even doing away with unwelcome decisions. A common and determinative response is reducing uncertainty and taking refuge in what is familiar. We conclude with the observation that formulating policy advice under deep uncertainty is a delicate balancing act between dealing with uncertainty and craving for certainty.

中文翻译：

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在深刻的长期不确定性下塑造政策建议的未来前景。荷兰三角洲委员会的案例

由于社会正面临一些重大变革，因此了解不确定环境中的长期观点是如何形成的，以及用于实现这些观点的条件和策略至关重要（Van Assche、Verschraegen 和 Gruezmacher，本期）。本文分析了荷兰三角洲委员会在深度（长期）不确定性中的未来前景是如何形成的。它侧重于（之间的相互关系）政府安排、长期（非）确定性的构建以及对长期不确定性的实际反应，同时制定未来展望和相应的政策建议。该论文描述并分析了荷兰三角洲委员会使用的六种不同的不确定性响应，即拥抱不确定性、否认不确定性、减少不确定性、委托不确定性、将不确定性与当前保持一致并伪装不确定性。我们观察到，大多数不确定性反应都是在面对不确定性时保证取得进展的方式。其他回应旨在营造一种采取行动的紧迫感，或推迟、推迟甚至取消不受欢迎的决定。一个普遍而决定性的反应是减少不确定性并在熟悉的事物中寻求庇护。我们得出的结论是，在高度不确定的情况下制定政策建议是处理不确定性和渴望确定性之间的微妙平衡行为。其他回应旨在营造一种采取行动的紧迫感，或推迟、推迟甚至取消不受欢迎的决定。一个普遍而决定性的反应是减少不确定性并在熟悉的事物中寻求庇护。我们得出的结论是，在高度不确定的情况下制定政策建议是处理不确定性和渴望确定性之间的微妙平衡行为。其他回应旨在营造一种采取行动的紧迫感，或推迟、推迟甚至取消不受欢迎的决定。一个普遍而决定性的反应是减少不确定性并在熟悉的事物中避难。我们得出的结论是，在高度不确定的情况下制定政策建议是处理不确定性和渴望确定性之间的微妙平衡行为。