Abstract

Recent studies demonstrate that turnover in domestic political leadership is associated with change in states’ foreign policies. While domestic changes matter even after controlling for international factors, many argue that international factors should overwhelm the effects of domestic turnover on foreign policy change. Yet existing studies tend to focus on other domestic-level variables (e.g., regime type) as constraints on domestic turnover. We consider how three sets of international factors that scholars have argued might outweigh the influence of domestic changes—security environment, socialization, and economic dependence—moderate the effects of domestic coalition changes on variance in voting patterns in the United Nations. To do this, we interact a measure of domestic coalition turnover with various proxies for international context in a statistical model of voting consistency. We find that many international factors are associated with greater consistency in voting behavior. Yet the effects of domestic change on foreign policy are remarkably resilient. We find only limited evidence that the effect of domestic change attenuates as states face more international constraints. The results reinforce the importance of understanding the role of both domestic political factors and international context in shaping foreign policy.

中文翻译：

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联合国大会的国际制约因素，政治变动和投票一致性

摘要

最近的研究表明，国内政治领导层的更替与各州外交政策的变化有关。尽管即使控制了国际因素，国内变化仍然很重要，但许多人认为，国际因素应压倒国内营业额对外交政策变化的影响。然而，现有研究倾向于集中在其他国内水平变量（例如政体类型）上，作为对国内营业额的限制。我们认为，学者们争论的三组国际因素可能会超过国内变化的影响-安全环境，社会化和经济依赖性-如何减轻国内联盟变化对联合国投票方式差异的影响。去做这个，我们在投票一致性统计模型中，将国际同盟的国内联合营业额的度量与各种代理进行交互。我们发现，许多国际因素与投票行为的更大一致性相关。然而，国内变化对外交政策的影响具有显着的弹性。我们发现只有有限的证据表明，随着各州面临更多的国际限制，国内变化的影响会减弱。结果强调了理解国内政治因素和国际背景在制定外交政策中的作用的重要性。我们发现只有有限的证据表明，随着各州面临更多的国际限制，国内变化的影响会减弱。结果强调了理解国内政治因素和国际环境在制定外交政策中的作用的重要性。我们发现只有有限的证据表明，随着各州面临更多的国际限制，国内变化的影响会减弱。结果强调了理解国内政治因素和国际环境在制定外交政策中的作用的重要性。