Abstract

Recent studies show terrorist organizations that target only civilians almost always fail to achieve their ultimate objectives. On the contrary, groups that target combatants and civilians have better chances of success. Yet, most terrorist organizations do not directly target the state. When terrorist organizations shift their strategy from purely terrorist acts to confrontation against the target state, we may see a transition from terrorism to civil war. A terrorist organization's decision to engage in civil war largely depends on the organization's ability to alleviate the collective action problem. We argue terrorist groups with a territorial goal and groups operating in oil-rich countries are more likely to engage in civil war. The desire to gain a separate homeland is a powerful motivator to overcome the collective action problem. Terrorist organizations that operate in oil-rich countries are more likely to resort to civil war because oil dependence has the potential to increase grievances, which motivate rebellion, and resources provide a means of financing rebellion, while weakening target state institutions. Our findings confirm the existence of a territorial goal and availability of oil resources trigger transition from terrorism to civil war.

中文翻译：

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恐怖分子作为叛军：恐怖主义运动中的领土目标，石油资源和内战爆发

摘要

最近的研究表明，仅针对平民的恐怖组织几乎总是无法实现其最终目标。相反，针对战斗人员和平民的团体获得成功的机会更大。但是，大多数恐怖组织并不直接针对国家。当恐怖组织将其战略从纯粹的恐怖行为转变为与目标国家的对抗时，我们可能会看到从恐怖主义到内战的过渡。恐怖组织作出内战的决定在很大程度上取决于该组织减轻集体行动问题的能力。我们认为，以领土为目标的恐怖集团和在石油资源丰富的国家活动的集团更可能卷入内战。获得独立家园的愿望是克服集体行动问题的强大动力。在石油资源丰富的国家运作的恐怖主义组织更可能诉诸内战，因为对石油的依赖可能会增加不满情绪，从而引发叛乱，而资源提供了为叛乱提供资金的手段，同时削弱了目标国家机构。我们的发现证实了领土目标的存在，石油资源的可用性引发了从恐怖主义到内战的转变。