Abstract

Do states’ partnerships with foreign elites influence international public opinion? During Russia's annexation of Crimea, the Kremlin strengthened its ties with far-left and far-right European parties—leading some European elites to express more explicit pro-Russian positions. This paper analyzes how these elite-level ties influence ordinary individuals’ foreign policy attitudes, offering insight into the conditions under which soft power “trickles down.” By leveraging public opinion data before and after the conflict in Crimea (2012–2017), and employing an estimation strategy that follows the same logic as a standard differences-in-differences strategy, I demonstrate that Russia's linkages with anti-establishment parties led to greater confidence in Vladimir Putin over time, but had limited impact on favorability toward Russia, the United States, and NATO. These findings have important implications for autocratic public diplomacy, our conceptualization of soft power, and Russian foreign policy.

中文翻译：

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削弱软实力：俄罗斯与欧洲政党的关系会影响舆论吗？

摘要

国家与外国精英的伙伴关系会影响国际舆论吗？在俄罗斯吞并克里米亚期间，克里姆林宫加强了与最左派和最右派欧洲政党的联系，从而导致一些欧洲精英表达了更为明确的亲俄罗斯立场。本文分析了这些精英关系如何影响普通人的外交政策态度，从而洞察了软实力“ power足”的条件。通过利用克里米亚（2012-2017）冲突前后的舆论数据，并采用与标准差异标准相同的逻辑估算策略，我证明了俄罗斯与反建制政党的联系导致随着时间的推移，人们对弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）的信心增强，但对俄罗斯的好感度影响有限，美国和北约。这些发现对专制的公共外交，我们对软实力的构想以及俄罗斯的外交政策都具有重要意义。