The aim of this research is to forecast seasonal fluctuations in electricity consumption, and electricity usage efficiency of industrial sectors and identify the impacts of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For this purpose, a new seasonal grey prediction model (AWBO-DGGM(1,1)) is proposed: it combines buffer operators and the DGGM(1,1) model. Based on the quarterly data of the industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province of China from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2020, the GM(1,1), DGGM(1,1), SVM, and AWBO-DGGM(1,1) models are employed, respectively, to simulate and forecast seasonal variations in electricity consumption, the added value, and electricity usage efficiency. The results indicate that the AWBO-DGGM(1,1) models can identify seasonal fluctuations and variations in time series data, and predict the impact of COVID-19 on industrial systems. The minimum mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of the electricity consumption, added value, and electricity usage efficiency of industrial enterprises separately are 0.12%, 0.10%, and 3.01% in the training stage, while those in the test stage are 6.79%, 4.09%, and 2.25%, respectively. The electricity consumption, added value, and electricity usage efficiency of industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province will still present a tendency to grow with seasonal fluctuations from 2020 to 2022. Of them, the added value is predicted to increase the fastest, followed by electricity consumption.

本研究的目的是预测工业部门用电量和用电效率的季节性波动，并确定 2019 年新型冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 的影响。为此，提出了一种新的季节性灰色预测模型（AWBO-DGGM（1,1））：它结合了缓冲算子和DGGM（1,1）模型。基于2013年一季度至2020年一季度浙江省工业企业季度数据，GM(1,1)、DGGM(1,1)、SVM、AWBO-DGGM(1 ,1)分别采用模型对用电量、增加值和用电效率的季节性变化进行模拟和预测。结果表明，AWBO-DGGM(1,1) 模型可以识别时间序列数据中的季节性波动和变化，并预测 COVID-19 对工业系统的影响。工业企业用电量、增加值和用电效率的最小平均绝对百分比误差（MAPEs）在训练阶段分别为0.12%、0.10%和3.01%，而在测试阶段为6.79%，分别为 4.09% 和 2.25%。2020-2022年浙江省工业企业用电量、增加值和用电效率仍将呈现季节性波动增长的趋势，其中预计增加值增长最快，其次是用电量。工业企业用电效率在训练阶段分别为0.12%、0.10%和3.01%，在测试阶段分别为6.79%、4.09%和2.25%。2020-2022年浙江省工业企业用电量、增加值和用电效率仍将呈现季节性波动增长的趋势，其中预计增加值增长最快，其次是用电量。工业企业用电效率在训练阶段分别为0.12%、0.10%和3.01%，在测试阶段分别为6.79%、4.09%和2.25%。2020-2022年浙江省工业企业用电量、增加值和用电效率仍将呈现季节性波动增长的趋势，其中预计增加值增长最快，其次是用电量。