Stochastic models have a long history in the simulation of synthetic data sequences for application to risk assessment e.g. in stochastic hydrology. Their use in coastal engineering has recently grown. In this study we illustrate some typical coastal vulnerability applications of a recently developed stochastic wave climate model that has links to synoptic scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). Wave data are explicitly used to delineate the links to CPs. This modelling approach allows for simulating long continuous time series of waves that are linked to their associated CPs. The time series can be used for various types of coastal vulnerability assessments as a new management tool. The east coast of South Africa is used as a case study. The results demonstrate the robustness of the modelling technique and the potential applications in coastal vulnerability assessments. The link to CPs facilitates the application of these methods to the assessment of future climate changes on coastal vulnerability.

随机模型在合成数据序列的模拟中历史悠久，可用于风险评估，例如在随机水文学中。它们在海岸工程中的用途最近有所增加。在这项研究中，我们举例说明了最近开发的随机波气候模型的一些典型沿海脆弱性应用，该模型与天气尺度大气环流模式（CP）有联系。Wave数据显式用于描绘到CP的链接。这种建模方法可以模拟链接到其关联CP的连续的长时间连续波。该时间序列可作为新的管理工具用于各种类型的沿海脆弱性评估。以南非东海岸为例。结果证明了建模技术的鲁棒性以及在沿海脆弱性评估中​​的潜在应用。与CP的链接有助于将这些方法应用到评估沿海脆弱性的未来气候变化。