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Advancing post-earthquake structural evaluations via sequential regression-based predictive mean matching for enhanced forecasting in the context of missing data
Advanced Engineering Informatics ( IF 8.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.aei.2020.101202
Huan Luo , Stephanie German Paal

After an earthquake, every damaged building needs to be properly evaluated in order to determine its capacity to withstand aftershocks as well as to assess safety for occupants to return. These evaluations are time-sensitive as the quicker they are completed, the less costly the disaster will be in terms of lives and dollars lost. In this direction, there is often not sufficient time or resources to acquire all information regarding the structure to do a high-level structural analysis. The post-earthquake damage survey data may be incomplete and contain missing values, which delays the analytical procedure or even makes structural evaluation impossible. This paper proposes a novel multiple imputation (MI) approach to address the missing data problem by filling in each missing value with multiple realistic, valid candidates, accounting for the uncertainty of missing data. The proposed method, called sequential regression-based predictive mean matching (SRB-PMM), utilizes Bayesian parameter estimation to consecutively infer the model parameters for variables with missing values, conditional based on the fully observed and imputed variables. Given the model parameters, a hybrid approach integrating PMM with a cross-validation algorithm is developed to obtain the most plausible imputed data set. Two examples are carried out to validate the usefulness of the SRB-PMM approach based on a database including 262 reinforced concrete (RC) column specimens subjected to earthquake loads. The results from both examples suggest that the proposed SRB-PMM approach is an effective means to handle missing data problems prominent in post-earthquake structural evaluations.



中文翻译:

通过基于顺序回归的预测均值匹配来推进地震后结构评估,以在数据丢失的情况下增强预测能力

地震后,需要对每座受损的建筑物进行适当的评估,以确定其抵御余震的能力以及评估乘员返回的安全性。这些评估是时间敏感的,因为评估越快完成,就生命和财产损失而言,灾难的损失就越少。在这个方向上,通常没有足够的时间或资源来获取有关结构的所有信息以进行高级结构分析。震后破坏调查数据可能不完整且包含缺失值,这会延迟分析过程,甚至无法进行结构评估。本文提出了一种新颖的多重插补(MI)方法,通过用多个现实的有效候选者填充每个缺失值来解决缺失数据问题,解释丢失数据的不确定性。所提出的方法称为基于顺序回归的预测均值匹配(SRB-PMM),它利用贝叶斯参数估计来连续地推断具有缺失值的变量的模型参数,条件是基于充分观察和推算的变量。给定模型参数,开发了一种将PMM与交叉验证算法集成的混合方法,以获得最合理的估算数据集。基于包含262个承受地震荷载的钢筋混凝土(RC)柱样本的数据库,执行了两个示例以验证SRB-PMM方法的有效性。两个示例的结果都表明,所提出的SRB-PMM方法是处理地震后结构评估中突出的缺失数据问题的有效手段。

更新日期:2021-01-24
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