Using the historical, moderate emission scenario (RCP45/SSP245), and high emission scenario (RCP85/SSP585) experiments provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6), future changes of stratospheric final warming (SFW) events are explored in this study. Most CMIP5/6 models project a delay of SFWs in the two future scenarios, compared with historical simulation in both hemispheres (4–8 days shift in the multimodel mean). The projected delay in SFWs suggest a later seasonal transition from the climatological wintertime to summertime circulation in both hemispheres. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), essentially all of the delay in the SFW occurs in the era with strong ozone depletion (1980–2040), and the SFW date is largely unchanged as ozone recovers through the end of the century. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 multimodel ensemble means (MMEs) do not project any significant change in reversal of westerlies and the stratosphere-troposphere coupling strength during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) SFW. In contrast, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 MMEs project a significant decrease in the strength of SH SFW, but the lower tropospheric response to the SH SFW changes little during 1980–2040. However, the near-surface response to SH SFWs is projected to be significantly stronger during 2040–2100 than during 1980–2040, as well as in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. Biases in SFW over the historical period are generally larger in the NH than in the SH, and show little improvement from CMIP5 to CMIP6.

使用耦合模型比较项目第5和第6阶段（CMIP5 / 6）提供的历史，中等排放情景（RCP45 / SSP245）和高排放情景（RCP85 / SSP585）实验，平流层最终变暖（SFW）事件的未来变化在这项研究中进行了探讨。与两个半球的历史模拟相比，大多数CMIP5 / 6模型都预测在两种未来情况下SFW会有所延迟（多模型平均值的转换为4-8天）。SFW的预计延迟表明，两个半球从气候冬季到夏季循环的后期季节转换。在南半球（SF），基本上所有SFW的延迟都发生在臭氧消耗严重的时代（1980-2040年），并且随着本世纪末臭氧的恢复，SFW的日期基本没有变化。在北半球SFW期间，CMIP5和CMIP6多模型集合均值（MME）均未预测西风反转和平流层-对流层耦合强度的任何显着变化。相比之下，CMIP5和CMIP6 MME都预测SH SFW的强度会显着降低，但是对流层对SH SFW的响应较低，在1980-2040年间变化不大。但是，预计2040-2100年间对SH SFW的近地表反应将比1980-2040年间显着增强，并且CMIP6中的响应要比CMIP5中的强。在历史时期，SFW中的偏差通常在NH中比在SH中更大，并且从CMIP5到CMIP6几乎没有改善。