This study assesses the impact of state repressive counterterrorism actions on terrorists’ targeting and lethality of the terrorism landscape in Israel. Using systematic data on government responses to terrorism and an empirical model that addresses reciprocal relationships, we analyze dynamical interactions between types of government repression with attacks against civilian or government targets, and deadly terrorist violence. Contrary to public policy pronouncements of forcefully fighting terrorism to eradicate terrorist threats, our results suggest that repressive counterterrorism actions by the state increase terror and deadly violence. Importantly, the results indicate that these unintended escalatory or backlash effects are dependent on the scope of government repression, the type of terrorist targets, and the lethality of terrorism.

中文翻译：

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审查国家压制与恐怖主义之间的联系：压制性反恐行动，恐怖主义目标和以色列致命的恐怖暴力之间的动态关系

这项研究评估了国家镇压性反恐行动对恐怖分子针对以色列恐怖活动的针对性和杀伤力的影响。我们使用有关政府对恐怖主义的反应的系统数据和处理对等关系的经验模型，来分析政府镇压类型（针对平民或政府目标的袭击）和致命的恐怖暴力之间的动态相互作用。与公共政策强行打击恐怖主义以消除恐怖主义威胁相反，我们的结果表明，国家的镇压性反恐行动增加了恐怖和致命暴力。重要的是，结果表明，这些意想不到的升级或反弹影响取决于政府镇压的范围，恐怖分子目标的类型以及恐怖主义的杀伤力。