It has been argued that the predictors of all criminal career features are the same, and that childhood risk factors do not predict life‐course‐persistent offenders. Little is known about childhood predictors of the duration of criminal careers. The aim is to investigate childhood (aged 8–10 years) risk factors for criminal career duration, in comparison with childhood risk factors for other criminal career features. The Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development is a prospective longitudinal survey of 411 South London males from age 8, with conviction records up to age 61. Life‐course‐persistent (LCP) offenders were defined as those with a criminal career lasting at least 20 years. The strongest predictors of LCP offenders were harsh discipline, poor parental supervision, a convicted father and parental conflict. Childhood risk factors for LCP offenders and criminal career duration were different from childhood risk factors for the prevalence of offending (convicted versus unconvicted males). These results should be taken into account in developmental and life‐course criminology theories, risk assessment instruments and risk‐focused interventions.

中文翻译：

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犯罪职业生涯的儿童期危险因素：与患病率，发病率，频率和累犯的比较

有人认为，所有犯罪职业特征的预测因素都是相同的，并且儿童期的危险因素不能预测生活过程中持续犯罪的人。关于犯罪职业生涯持续时间的儿童预测因素知之甚少。目的是与其他犯罪职业特征的儿童期危险因素相比，调查儿童（8-10岁）犯罪职业期限的风险因素。剑桥的拖延发展研究是一项对8名年龄在8岁以下的南伦敦男性的前瞻性纵向调查，其犯罪记录一直持续到61岁。终身犯罪（LCP）罪犯的定义是犯罪职业持续至少20年。LCP罪犯最强的预测因素是严厉的纪律，不良的父母监督，定罪的父亲和父母冲突。LCP罪犯的儿童期风险因素和犯罪职业持续时间与犯罪行为流行的儿童期风险因素（定罪男性与未定罪男性）不同。这些结果应在发展和生命犯罪学理论，风险评估工具和针对风险的干预措施中加以考虑。