Abstract

This article investigates the effect of perceived uncertainty on two types of screening strategies – exclusion and inclusion. Results from five studies showed that perceived uncertainty increases the preference for exclusion strategy. Using both mediation and moderation methods, we find support for accuracy consideration as the driver underlying the effect of perceived uncertainty on screening strategy. Furthermore, we demonstrated a reversal of the relationship between perceived uncertainty and screening strategy by manipulating the consideration set size. While perceived uncertainty strengthened the preference for the exclusion strategy when forming smaller consideration sets, this relationship flipped when forming larger consideration sets. We also demonstrated the effects of perceived preference uncertainty on screening strategy over and above knowledge uncertainty, choice uncertainty, as well as dispositional attitude toward uncertainty. Finally, we demonstrated the generalisability of our results by analysing verbal protocol data from the TV game show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?

摘要

本文研究了感知的不确定性对两种筛选策略的影响–排除和包含。五项研究的结果表明，感知的不确定性增加了排斥策略的偏好。使用调解和调节方法，我们发现对准确性考虑的支持，将其作为潜在的潜在不确定因素对筛选策略的影响。此外，我们通过操纵考虑因素的规模证明了不确定性与筛选策略之间关系的逆转。当形成较小的对价集时，感知的不确定性增强了对排除策略的偏好，而当形成较大的对价集时，这种关系发生了转变。我们还证明了感知的偏好不确定性对筛选策略的影响超过知识不确定性，选择不确定性以及对不确定性的处置态度。最后，我们通过分析电视游戏节目中的口头协议数据来证明我们的结果具有普遍性谁愿意成为百万富翁？