Over the past decade, Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's fastest growing economies. Fossil fuel use, which is a dominant energy source and vital for economic growth, have been increasing considerably. Undoubtedly, the projection of fossil fuel demand is essential for a better understanding of energy needs, fuel mix, and Vietnam's strategic development. This paper provides an outlook for coal, oil, and gas demand in Vietnam to 2050. The projection is based on the calibrated results from a hybrid model (that combines a GTAP‐ R version for resources, and a micro simulation approach) and an energy database. Under the baseline scenario (business as usual), from 2018 to 2050, the demand for coal, oil products, and gas are expected to increase by a factor of 2.47‐fold, 2.14‐fold, and 1.67‐fold, respectively. Emissions are also projected to increase. Because fossil fuels are the dominant source of carbon emissions in Vietnam, it follows, going forward, that an effective fuel‐mix strategy that encourages the development of renewables and energy efficiency is essential.

中文翻译：

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越南对2050年化石燃料需求的预测及其对气候变化的影响

在过去的十年中，越南已成为世界上发展最快的经济体之一。化石燃料的使用一直是重要的能源，对经济增长至关重要，其使用量已经大大增加。毫无疑问，对化石燃料需求的预测对于更好地了解能源需求，燃料结构和越南的战略发展至关重要。本文提供了到2050年越南煤炭，石油和天然气需求的展望。该预测基于混合模型（结合了GTAP‐R版本的资源和微观模拟方法）和能源的校准结果。数据库。在基准情景下（照常营业），从2018年到2050年，对煤炭，石油产品和天然气的需求预计将分别增长2.47倍，2.14倍和1.67倍。预计排放也会增加。由于化石燃料是越南碳排放的主要来源，因此，展望未来，必须采取有效的燃料混合战略，鼓励发展可再生能源和提高能源效率。