ABSTRACT

Tourism development differs among countries and changes with time. Here, the characteristics of the international tourism over a 23-year period were analyzed. Tourism was well developed in high-income countries. Tourism flow revealed by Granger-causality test showed that cultural similarity, travel distance, differences in customs, and economic partnership were the main factors for destination choice. The tourism development showed the structural break points in 2001, 2005, 2010, and 2015. More lower-middle-income countries are benefiting from the tourism. Totally, we presented a comprehensive analysis for the international tourism over time.

中文翻译：

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在过去的二十年中，国际旅游业将如何发展？

摘要

国家之间的旅游发展不同，并且随着时间而变化。在这里，分析了23年间国际旅游的特征。高收入国家的旅游业发达。格兰杰因果检验揭示的旅游流量表明，文化相似性，旅行距离，习俗差异和经济伙伴关系是目的地选择的主要因素。旅游业的发展在2001年，2005年，2010年和2015年显示出结构性的突破点。更多的中低收入国家正在从旅游业中受益。总的来说，我们对国际旅游业进行了全面的分析。