The present study aims to characterize the epistemic uncertainty within the use of global non‐linear numerical analyses (i.e., NLNAs) for design and assessment purposes of slender reinforced concrete (RC) members. The epistemic uncertainty associated to NLNAs may be represented by approximations and choices performed during the definition of a structural numerical model. In order to quantify epistemic uncertainty associated to a non‐linear numerical simulation, the resistance model uncertainty random variable has to be characterized by means of the comparison between experimental and numerical results. With this aim, a set of experimental tests on slender RC columns known from the literature is considered. Then, the experimental results in terms of maximum axial load are compared to the outcomes achieved from NLNAs. Nine different modeling hypotheses are herein considered to characterize the resistance model uncertainty random variable. The probabilistic analysis of the results has been performed according to Bayesian approach accounting also for both the previous knowledge from the scientific literature and the influence of the experimental uncertainty on the estimation of the statistics of the resistance model uncertainty random variable. Finally, the resistance model uncertainty partial safety factor is evaluated in line with the global resistance format of fib Model Code for Concrete Structures 2010 with reference to new and existing RC structures.

中文翻译：

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细长钢筋混凝土构件非线性数值分析中的模型不确定性

本研究旨在通过细长钢筋混凝土（RC）构件的设计和评估目的，使用全局非线性数值分析（即NLNA）来表征认知不确定性。与NLNA相关的认知不确定性可以通过在结构数值模型的定义过程中执行的近似和选择来表示。为了量化与非线性数值模拟相关的认知不确定性，必须通过比较实验结果和数值结果来表征电阻模型不确定性随机变量。为此目的，考虑了对文献中已知的细长RC柱的一组实验测试。然后，将最大轴向载荷方面的实验结果与NLNA的结果进行比较。本文考虑了九种不同的建模假设来表征电阻模型不确定性随机变量。根据贝叶斯方法对结果进行了概率分析，也考虑了科学文献中的先前知识以及实验不确定性对电阻模型不确定性随机变量统计量估计的影响。最后，电阻模型不确定性的部分安全系数根据全局电阻格式进行评估。根据贝叶斯方法对结果进行了概率分析，也考虑了科学文献中的先前知识以及实验不确定性对电阻模型不确定性随机变量统计量估计的影响。最后，电阻模型不确定性的部分安全系数根据全局电阻格式进行评估。根据贝叶斯方法对结果进行了概率分析，也考虑了科学文献中的先前知识以及实验不确定性对电阻模型不确定性随机变量统计量估计的影响。最后，电阻模型不确定性的部分安全系数根据全局电阻格式进行评估。fib参考新的和现有的RC结构的《混凝土结构2010年模型代码》。