Although embers are a leading cause of house loss and damage from wildfire, risk reduction activities such as vegetation management and planning requirements do not adequately account for the risk of embers. To help address this, a model of the potential ember risk is presented. It takes into account local vegetation and background wind conditions for both long-range and short-range ember dispersal. This model is developed to provide indications of the importance of embers to the household-level wildfire risk in communities at the wildland-urban interface. The model provides information for householders to improve understanding of the nature of ember risk within the community, and to assist planning in order to respond to that risk. A case study of the 2015 Warringine Park (Coastal Section) bushfire in Australia is presented, which demonstrates how the model could be used to assist with community planning. The utility of this outcome for community and household level wildfire planning and preparation is discussed.

尽管余烬是造成房屋损失和野火破坏的主要原因，但是减少风险的活动（例如植被管理和规划要求）并不能充分说明余烬的风险。为了帮助解决这个问题，提出了一种潜在的灰烬风险模型。它考虑到了远距离和短距离余烬扩散的当地植被和背景风情况。开发该模型的目的是表明灰烬对荒野与城市交界处社区的家庭级野火风险的重要性。该模型为住户提供了信息，以增进他们对社区内余烬风险本质的了解，并有助于规划以应对这一风险。本文以澳大利亚2015年的Warringine公园（沿海地区）丛林大火为例，这说明了如何使用该模型来协助社区规划。讨论了此结果在社区和家庭级野火规划和准备中的效用。