Ships operating in ice-infested Arctic waters are exposed to a range of ship-ice interaction related hazards. One of the most dangerous of these is the possibility of a ship becoming beset in ice, meaning that a ship is surrounded by ice preventing it from maneuvering under its own power. Such a besetting event may not only result in severe operational disruption, but also expose a ship to severe ice loading or cause it to drift towards shallow water. This may cause significant structural damage to a ship and potentially jeopardize its safety. To support safe and sustainable Arctic shipping operations, this article presents a probabilistic approach to assess the probability of a ship becoming beset in ice. To this end, the proposed approach combines different types of data, including Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, satellite ice data, as well as data on real-life ship besetting events. Based on this data, using a hierarchical Bayesian model, the proposed approach calculates the probability of a besetting event as a function of the Polar Ship Category of a ship, sea area, and the distance travelled in the prevailing ice concentration. The utility of the proposed approach, e.g. in supporting spatiotemporal risk assessments of Arctic shipping activities as well as Arctic voyage planning, is demonstrated through a case study in which the approach is applied to ships operating in the Northern Sea Route (NSR) area. The outcomes of the case study indicate that the probability of besetting is strongly dependent on the Polar Ship Category of a ship and that the probability increases significantly with higher ice concentrations. The sea area, on the other hand, does not appear to significantly affect the probability of besetting.

在充满冰的北极水域中作业的船舶暴露于一系列与船冰相互作用相关的危险。其中最危险的一种是船在冰中被困住的可能性，这意味着船被冰包围着，从而使其无法在自己的力量下操纵。这种困扰事件不仅可能导致严重的运行中断，而且会使船舶遭受严重的冰负荷或导致其向浅水漂移。这可能会对船舶造成重大的结构损坏，并可能危害其安全。为了支持北极地区的安全和可持续运营，本文提出了一种概率方法来评估船舶在冰上陷入困境的可能性。为此，建议的方法结合了不同类型的数据，包括自动识别系统（AIS）数据，卫星冰雪数据，以及有关现实生活中的船只困扰事件的数据。基于此数据，使用分层贝叶斯模型，所提出的方法根据船舶的极地船舶类别，海域以及在盛行的冰浓度中行进的距离来计算困扰事件的概率。通过案例研究证明了该方法的实用性，例如，它支持北极航运活动的时空风险评估以及北极航行计划，该方法适用于在北海航线（NSR）地区运营的船舶。案例研究的结果表明，困扰的可能性在很大程度上取决于船舶的极地船舶类别，并且随着冰浓度的增加，该可能性显着增加。另一方面，海域