Context

With prevailing economic concerns facing the conventional dairy industry, organic production is a potential alternative for dairy producers as evidenced by a substantial number of operations pursuing organic markets in an effort to improve profitability. However, economic research is limited and the long-term economic sustainability of the system has been questioned.

Objective

The objectives of this study were to determine the economically optimal mix of forage and supplemental feed to maximize net returns, identify opportunities and considerations regarding production and feed management, and determine the sensitivity of returns relative to changes in milk prices for an organic dairy operation.

Methods

A linear programming model was developed to represent a whole-farm organic dairy operation in the Southeastern United States. The representative farm modeled was based on actual organic dairy operations in Kentucky and Tennessee, partnering with University personnel on this project. The model was employed to explore and optimize enterprise and feed options for the operation.

Results and conclusions

Results demonstrated a degree of substitutability of ration components, including representative forage species mixes for grazing, as well as hay and purchased concentrates. Profit potential was found to exist at assumed organic milk price levels, although organic milk price trends and the cost of transitioning to organic production create significant challenges. While a considerable reliance on grazing was a cost-effective feeding decision for organic production (a minimum of 30% dry matter intake from grazing is required), increased milk volumes justified the production and purchasing of additional supplemental feeds. Thus, evidence of increased profit potential by targeting higher production levels was suggested under the scenarios examined. Results also indicated a relatively narrow range of break-even milk prices across varying production levels for organic dairies. Finally, a business life of twenty years was generally needed to justify the transitioning of an existing conventional dairy to an organic dairy operation.

Significance

This work has implications for existing dairy operations as findings suggest profit potential and some ability to withstand moderate erosion of milk price. The work also informs dairy producers interested in transitioning to organic production by quantifying the cost of this transition and the potential return on that investment over time.

中文翻译：

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美国东南部有机奶牛场的最佳草料和补料平衡

语境

常规乳制品行业面临着普遍的经济担忧，有机生产是乳制品生产商的一种潜在选择，大量的追求有机市场以提高盈利能力的业务证明了这一点。但是，经济研究有限，并且对该系统的长期经济可持续性提出了质疑。

目的

这项研究的目的是确定饲料和补充饲料在经济上的最佳组合，以使净收益最大化，确定有关生产和饲料管理的机会和考虑因素，并确定有机乳品经营的收益相对于牛奶价格变化的敏感性。

方法

开发了线性规划模型来代表美国东南部的全农场有机乳业运营。代表农场的建模基于肯塔基州和田纳西州的实际有机乳制品运营，并与该项目的大学人员合作。该模型用于探索和优化操作的企业和提要选项。

结果与结论

结果表明，口粮成分具有一定的可替代性，包括用于放牧的代表性草料混合物以及干草和购买的精矿。尽管有机奶价格趋势和向有机生产过渡的成本带来了巨大挑战，但假定有机奶的价格水平存在获利潜力。虽然相当依赖放牧是有机生产的一种具有成本效益的喂养决定（放牧需要至少摄取30％的干物质），但增加的牛奶量证明了生产和购买其他补充饲料的合理性。因此，在所考察的情况下，建议通过瞄准更高的生产水平来增加获利潜力的证据。结果还表明，在有机乳制品生产水平不同的情况下，收支平衡牛奶价格范围相对狭窄。最后，通常需要二十年的使用寿命才能证明现有的常规乳品厂向有机乳品厂过渡的合理性。

意义

这项工作对现有的乳业运营产生了影响，因为研究结果表明其具有潜在的利润和承受牛奶价格适度侵蚀的能力。这项工作还通过量化这种过渡的成本以及随着时间的推移该投资的潜在回报，向有意向有机生产过渡的乳制品生产商提供信息。