One of the major challenges in seismic hazard analysis for induced seismicity is the forecasting of future seismicity rates, which are described by the Gutenberg–Richter parameters (a and b-values from the earthquake magnitude frequency distributions). In this study, we implement two methodologies in order to determine the Gutenberg–Richter parameters related to future induced seismicity: the Seismogenic Index and the Hydromechanical Nucleation model. We apply both methods in one recent case of induced seismicity: the Horn River Basin, Northeast B.C., Canada. We perform two tests to compare the predictions of both models with the observed seismicity. First, we compare the predicted number of earthquakes exceeding a certain magnitude per month with the observed number of earthquakes. In this test, both methods predict earthquake rates similar to the observed induced seismicity in the Horn River Basin. Second, we evaluate how appropriate are the predictions for specific magnitude ranges (given by forecasted Gutenberg–Richter parameters). In this case, both models make inaccurate predictions for specific magnitude ranges (annual magnitude frequency distributions), resulting in an under- or overestimation of the hazard but often with contradicting forecasts, despite using shared observations. The predictions under- and overestimate the hazard at different time points, due to the complexity in the evolution of the seismicity, and the assumption of constant b-values. As a result, these incorrect forecasts for future magnitude-frequency distributions lead to biased seismic hazard and ground motion predictions. More research effort is required in order to forecast more accurate Gutenberg–Richter parameters, particularly changes in the b-value, as observed in the Horn River Basin induced seismicity case.

中文翻译：

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使用基于物理的模型进行概率地震灾害分析，预测来自水力压裂活动的诱发地震率：案例研究

诱发地震活动的地震危险性分析的主要挑战之一是预测未来的地震活动率，这由 Gutenberg-Richter 参数（来自地震震级频率分布的 a 和 b 值）描述。在这项研究中，我们采用了两种方法来确定与未来诱发地震活动相关的古腾堡-里希特参数：地震指数和流体力学成核模型。我们在最近的一个诱发地震活动案例中应用了这两种方法：加拿大 BC 省东北部的 Horn 河流域。我们进行了两次测试，将两种模型的预测与观测到的地震活动进行比较。首先，我们将每月超过一定震级的预测地震次数与观测到的地震次数进行比较。在这个测试中，这两种方法预测的地震率与在霍恩河流域观测到的诱发地震活动相似。其次，我们评估对特定震级范围（由预测的 Gutenberg-Richter 参数给出）的预测是否合适。在这种情况下，两种模型对特定震级范围（年度震级频率分布）的预测都不准确，导致对灾害的低估或高估，但尽管使用了共享观测，但预测结果往往相互矛盾。由于地震活动演变的复杂性以及对恒定 b 值的假设，这些预测低估和高估了不同时间点的危险。结果，这些对未来震级-频率分布的错误预测导致了有偏差的地震灾害和地震动预测。