Deformation mechanism in the core rockfill dams with heavy load and high-stress level is difficult to predict and control, which is one of the key problems to be solved in the dam operation safety management and control. Aiming at the large error problems obtained by the parameter-based functional models (regression model, grey theory model, etc.) in the deformation prediction of the core rockfill dams, a fractal prediction method and its technical process by combining the variable dimension fractal dimension and the "metabolism" of prediction data are proposed through analyzing the fractal adaptability and deformation characteristics of original monitoring data based on the resealed-range (R/S) method and fractal dimension theory. It effectively solves the error in the process of constant dimension fractal accumulation and transformation greatly in dam deformation prediction and provides a new way for dam safety monitoring deformation prediction and early warning. The trend analysis of deformation monitoring data of the Pubugou core rockfill dam and the deformation prediction show that the fractal prediction information of dam deformation has a good corresponding relationship with its physical causes, which is in line with the actual deformation trend and operation state of the dam. Compared with the traditional stepwise regression method, the prediction results obtained by the proposed method in this paper are of high accuracy, implying that the improved fractal prediction of dam deformation is effective and the Hurst fractal index is applicable in the evaluation of the dam deformation trend.

中文翻译：

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堆石坝安全监控变形的分形预测方法

高负荷，高应力水平的堆石坝核心变形机理难以预测和控制，这是大坝运行安全管理与控制要解决的关键问题之一。针对堆芯大坝变形预测中基于参数的功能模型（回归模型，灰色理论模型等）所产生的较大误差问题，结合变维分形维数的分形预测方法及其工艺过程。并根据重新密封范围法和分形维数理论，通过分析原始监测数据的分形适应性和变形特征，提出了预测数据的“新陈代谢”。它有效地解决了大尺寸变形预测中等维分形累积和变形过程中的误差，为大坝安全监测变形预测和预警提供了新途径。瀑布沟核心堆石坝变形监测数据的趋势分析和变形预测表明，坝体变形的分形预测信息与其物理成因具有良好的对应关系，符合该坝的实际变形趋势和运行状态。坝。与传统的逐步回归方法相比，本文所提方法的预测结果具有较高的精度，