ABSTRACT

This article offers an analysis of the causes and consequences of the Ethio-Eritrean rapprochement. The causes are both internal (each side had their reasons) and external (under the influence of the UAE and Saudi Arabia). As for the consequences, the peace served as a catalyst of Eritrea’s reintegration: it boosted bilateral visits, had a limited regional snowball effect, lifted the UNSC sanctions, and accelerated the engagement of multilateral organizations and the EU in Eritrea. However, this reintegration is limited because of the persistent ambivalence of the regime, the degradation of the relations with Saudi Arabia and the US, and the fact that the peace with Ethiopia has stalled. Moreover, there is no peace dividend for the Eritrean population: after a glimpse of freedom when the border opened a couple of months, it is all back to the status quo ante, and even worse in some human rights respects. The conclusion shows the paradoxical nature of a rapprochement that also had negative effects and draws some lessons from the deeper problem explaining the stalled peace, that is institutional imbalance between a totalitarian state and a democratic one.

摘要

本文分析了埃塞俄比亚和解的成因和后果。原因既有内因（双方都有其原因）又有外因（在阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯的影响下）。至于后果，和平是厄立特里亚重返社会的催化剂：它促进了双边访问，增加了有限的区域滚雪球效应，解除了联合国安理会的制裁，并加速了多边组织和欧盟在厄立特里亚的参与。但是，由于该政权的持续矛盾，与沙特阿拉伯和美国的关系恶化以及与埃塞俄比亚的和平陷入停滞的事实，这种重新融合受到了限制。此外，厄立特里亚人民没有和平红利：在边境开放了几个月后瞥见自由之后，一切都回到了现状，在某些人权方面甚至更糟。结论表明，和解的悖论性质也产生了负面影响，并从更深层次的问题中吸取了教训，这些问题解释了停滞不前的和平，即极权国家与民主国家之间的制度失衡。