Ecological systems can show complex and sometimes abrupt responses to environmental change, with important implications for their resilience. Theories of alternate stable states have been used to predict regime shifts of ecosystems as equilibrium responses to sufficiently slow environmental change. The actual rate of environmental change is a key factor affecting the response, yet we are still lacking a non‐equilibrium theory that explicitly considers the influence of this rate of environmental change. We present a metacommunity model of predator–prey interactions displaying multiple stable states, and we impose an explicit rate of environmental change in habitat quality (carrying capacity) and connectivity (dispersal rate). We study how regime shifts depend on the rate of environmental change and compare the outcome with a stability analysis in the corresponding constant environment. Our results reveal that in a changing environment, the community can track states that are unstable in the constant environment. This tracking can lead to regime shifts, including local extinctions, that are not predicted by alternative stable state theory. In our metacommunity, tracking unstable states also controls the maintenance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial synchrony. Tracking unstable states can also lead to regime shifts that may be reversible or irreversible. Our study extends current regime shift theories to integrate rate‐dependent responses to environmental change. It reveals the key role of unstable states for predicting transient dynamics and long‐term resilience of ecological systems to climate change.

中文翻译：

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跟踪不稳定状态：不断变化的世界中的生态系统动态

生态系统可以显示出对环境变化的复杂，有时甚至是突然的反应，这对其生态系统的适应能力具有重要意义。交替稳态的理论已被用来预测生态系统的态势变化，作为对足够缓慢的环境变化的平衡反应。实际的环境变化速率是影响响应的关键因素，但是我们仍然缺乏明确考虑这种环境变化速率影响的非平衡理论。我们提出了一个捕食者与猎物相互作用的元社区模型，该模型显示了多个稳定状态，并且我们在栖息地质量（承载能力）和连通性（分散率）方面施加了明确的环境变化速率。我们研究了政权转移如何取决于环境变化的速率，并将结果与​​相应恒定环境中的稳定性分析进行比较。我们的结果表明，在不断变化的环境中，社区可以跟踪在恒定环境中不稳定的状态。这种追踪可能导致政权转移，包括局部灭绝，这是替代稳定状态理论所无法预测的。在我们的元社区中，跟踪不稳定状态还可以控制空间异质性和空间同步性的维持。跟踪不稳定状态也会导致政权转移，这种转移可能是可逆的，也可能是不可逆的。我们的研究扩展了当前的政权转移理论，以整合对环境变化的依赖于速率的响应。