We present rigorous tests of global short-term earthquake forecasts using Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence models with two different time kernels (one with exponentially tapered Omori kernel (ETOK) and another with linear magnitude dependent Omori kernel (MDOK)). The tests are conducted with three different magnitude cutoffs for the auxiliary catalog (M3, M4 or M5) and two different magnitude cutoffs for the primary catalog (M5 or M6), in 30 day long pseudo prospective experiments designed to forecast worldwide M ≥ 5 and M ≥ 6 earthquakes during the period from January 1981 to October 2019. MDOK ETAS models perform significantly better relative to ETOK ETAS models. The superiority of MDOK ETAS models adds further support to the multifractal stress activation model proposed by Ouillon and Sornette [J. Geophys. Res.: Solid Earth 110, B04306 (2005)]. We find a significant improvement of forecasting skills by lowering the auxiliary catalog magnitude cutoff from 5 to 4. We unearth evidence for a self-similarity of the triggering process as models trained on lower magnitude events have the same forecasting skills as models trained on higher magnitude earthquakes. Expressing our forecasts in terms of the full distribution of earthquake rates at different spatial resolutions, we present tests for the consistency of our model, which is often found satisfactory but also points to a number of potential improvements, such as incorporating anisotropic spatial kernels, and accounting for spatial and depth dependant variations of the ETAS parameters. The model has been implemented as a reference model on the global earthquake prediction platform RichterX, facilitating predictive skill assessment and allowing anyone to review its prospective performance.

我们使用带有两个不同时间核（一个具有指数锥形Omori核（ETOK）和另一个具有线性幅度依赖性Omori核（MDOK））的流行类型余震序列模型，对全球短期地震预报进行了严格的测试。在为期30天的伪前瞻性实验中，对辅助目录（M 3，M 4或M 5）使用三种不同的幅度截止，对主目录（M 5或M 6）使用两种不同的幅度截止进行测试。全世界中号 ≥5和中号 1981年1月至2019年10月期间发生了≥6次地震。MDOK ETAS模型的性能明显优于ETOK ETAS模型。MDOK ETAS模型的优越性为Ouillon和Sornette提出的多重分形应力激活模型提供了进一步的支持[J. 地理学。分辨率：固体地球110，B04306（2005）]。通过将辅助目录的幅度截止值从5降低到4，我们发现了预测技能的显着提高。我们发现了触发过程的自相似性的证据，因为在较小幅度的事件上训练的模型与在较高幅度的模型上训练的模型具有相同的预测技能。地震。用不同空间分辨率下的地震速率的完整分布来表达我们的预测，我们对模型的一致性进行了测试，通常可以令人满意，但也指出了许多潜在的改进，例如合并了各向异性的空间核，以及考虑到ETAS参数的空间和深度相关变化。该模型已在全球地震预测平台RichterX上作为参考模型实施，