The Pannonian Plain is one of the centers of ragweed distribution in Europe. The province of Vojvodina (Serbia) is located on the southern part of the Pannonian Plain, representing a highly infested region. In this study, we have used the SILAM atmospheric dispersion model to simulate ragweed pollen concentrations during the season 2016 in the Vojvodina region. SILAM was tested with three different source maps of ragweed distribution in Vojvodina only: (1) map used in operational SILAM, which was calibrated with the SILAM model and observations, (2) map derived using “top-down” approach with land cover data inventory, and (3) map obtained with “top-down” approach using crop classification from the satellite data. Additionally, the sensitivity studies were done using two modified maps to study the effect of the source strength and long-range transport. Results of simulations were validated with the bi-hourly, daily, and seasonal pollen concentrations measured at five stations in Vojvodina. Overall Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.51 (Map 1), 0.50 (Map 2), and 0.42 (Map 3), while debiased scores were 232.95 pollen m−3 (Map 1), 245.59 pollen m−3 (Map 2), and 258.24 pollen m−3 (Map 3). Even though Vojvodina is in the area of a major European source, regional transport of ragweed pollen from a few hundred kilometers of the surrounding area was important in explaining the presence of pollen in the afternoon hours, although it could not completely explain total pollen quantity. The results confirmed that it is vital to calibrate source maps using atmospheric dispersion model with the observed pollen data.

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源图对 SILAM 性能的影响，用于模拟欧洲主要来源地区的豚草花粉浓度

潘诺尼亚平原是欧洲豚草分布的中心之一。伏伊伏丁那省（塞尔维亚）位于潘诺尼亚平原的南部，代表了一个高度受感染的地区。在这项研究中，我们使用 SILAM 大气扩散模型来模拟 2016 年伏伊伏丁那地区的豚草花粉浓度。仅使用伏伊伏丁那岛豚草分布的三种不同源图对 SILAM 进行了测试：(1) 用于操作 SILAM 的地图，该地图使用 SILAM 模型和观测进行校准，(2) 使用“自上而下”的土地覆盖数据方法得出的地图清单，以及 (3) 使用卫星数据中的作物分类通过“自上而下”方法获得的地图。此外，敏感性研究是使用两个修改后的地图完成的，以研究源强度和远程传输的影响。模拟结果通过伏伊伏丁那五个站点测量的每两小时、每日和季节性花粉浓度进行了验证。总体 Pearson 相关系数为 0.51（地图 1）、0.50（地图 2）和 0.42（地图 3），而去偏差分数为 232.95 花粉 m-3（地图 1）、245.59 花粉 m-3（地图 2）和 258.24花粉 m−3（地图 3）。尽管伏伊伏丁那位于欧洲的一个主要来源地区，但来自周边地区数百公里的豚草花粉的区域运输对于解释下午时间存在的花粉很重要，尽管它不能完全解释总花粉量。