Poverty alleviation programs can reduce HIV incidence but may have greater impacts when combined with other psychosocial interventions. We modeled the change in HIV incidence among South African adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) associated with combining a cash transfer (the South African Child Support Grant (CSG)) with other structural and behavioral interventions. We modeled observational data from the HPTN 068 study where 2328 HIV negative AGYW (13–20 years) were followed for 4 years. In a Monte Carlo simulation based on this cohort (N = 10,000), CSG receipt was not independently associated with HIV incidence. Providing the CSG combined with increasing caregiver care and reducing adolescent depression had the largest reduction in HIV incidence with the fewest number of combined interventions (RD − 3.0%; (95% CI − 5.1%, − 0.9%). Combining a monthly grant with interventions to increase caregiver care and reduce adolescent depression could substantially reduce HIV incidence above the provision of cash alone.

扶贫计划可以降低艾滋病毒的发病率，但与其他社会心理干预措施相结合可能会产生更大的影响。我们模拟了南非少女和年轻女性 (AGYW) 中 HIV 发病率的变化，这些变化与现金转移（南非儿童抚养补助金 (CSG)）与其他结构和行为干预措施相结合有关。我们模拟了 HPTN 068 研究的观察数据，其中 2328 名 HIV 阴性 AGYW（13-20 年）被跟踪了 4 年。在基于该队列（N = 10,000）的蒙特卡洛模拟中，接受 CSG 与 HIV 发病率无关。提供 CSG 与增加照料者护理和减少青少年抑郁相结合，可以最大程度地降低 HIV 发病率，而联合干预的次数最少（RD - 3.0%；（95% CI - 5.1%， - 0.9%）。