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Social structure defines spatial transmission of African swine fever in wild boar
Journal of The Royal Society Interface ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-01 , DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0761
Kim M Pepin 1 , Andrew Golnar 1 , Tomasz Podgórski 2, 3
Affiliation  

The spatial spread of infectious disease is determined by spatial and social processes such as animal space use and family group structure. Yet, the impacts of social processes on spatial spread remain poorly understood and estimates of spatial transmission kernels (STKs) often exclude social structure. Understanding the impacts of social structure on STKs is important for obtaining robust inferences for policy decisions and optimizing response plans. We fit spatially explicit transmission models with different assumptions about contact structure to African swine fever virus surveillance data from eastern Poland from 2014 to 2015 and evaluated how social structure affected inference of STKs and spatial spread. The model with social structure provided better inference of spatial spread, predicted that approximately 80% of transmission events occurred within family groups, and that transmission was weakly female-biased (other models predicted weakly male-biased transmission). In all models, most transmission events were within 1.5 km, with some rare events at longer distances. Effective reproductive numbers were between 1.1 and 2.5 (maximum values between 4 and 8). Social structure can modify spatial transmission dynamics. Accounting for this additional contact heterogeneity in spatial transmission models could provide more robust inferences of STKs for policy decisions, identify best control targets and improve transparency in model uncertainty.

中文翻译:

社会结构定义了非洲猪瘟在野猪中的空间传播

传染病的空间传播由空间和社会过程决定,如动物空间利用和家庭群体结构。然而,社会过程对空间传播的影响仍然知之甚少,空间传输内核 (STK) 的估计通常不包括社会结构。了解社会结构对 STK 的影响对于获得对政策决策和优化响应计划的有力推论非常重要。我们将具有不同接触结构假设的空间显性传播模型与 2014 年至 2015 年波兰东部的非洲猪瘟病毒监测数据进行拟合,并评估社会结构如何影响 STK 的推断和空间传播。具有社会结构的模型提供了更好的空间传播推断,预测大约 80% 的传播事件发生在家庭群体内,并且这种传播是弱偏向女性的(其他模型预测弱偏向男性的传播)。在所有模型中,大多数传输事件都在 1.5 公里以内,一些罕见的事件发生在更远的距离。有效再生数介于 1.1 和 2.5 之间(最大值介于 4 和 8 之间)。社会结构可以改变空间传输动态。考虑到空间传输模型中这种额外的接触异质性,可以为政策决策提供更稳健的 STK 推断,确定最佳控制目标并提高模型不确定性的透明度。一些罕见的事件发生在更远的距离。有效再生数介于 1.1 和 2.5 之间(最大值介于 4 和 8 之间)。社会结构可以改变空间传输动态。考虑到空间传输模型中这种额外的接触异质性,可以为政策决策提供更稳健的 STK 推断,确定最佳控制目标并提高模型不确定性的透明度。一些罕见的事件发生在更远的距离。有效再生数介于 1.1 和 2.5 之间(最大值介于 4 和 8 之间)。社会结构可以改变空间传输动态。考虑到空间传输模型中这种额外的接触异质性,可以为政策决策提供更稳健的 STK 推断,确定最佳控制目标并提高模型不确定性的透明度。
更新日期:2021-01-01
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