Abstract

For the past 30 years of the history of macroeconomic thought, the Indeterminacy School of Macroeconomics has used general equilibrium models with indeterminate equilibria to understand the independent role of beliefs in shaping macroeconomic outcomes. In this paper I review the most recent advances in the indeterminacy agenda, Keynesian Search Theory, and I advance that agenda by introducing self-fulfilling beliefs to a Keynesian Search Model in two different ways. One variant of the model is driven by an exogenous process for investment expenditure. If investment is exogenous, the only way to restore full employment is by replacing private investment with public investment. The second variant of the model is driven by consumer confidence. If consumer confidence is exogenous, treasury or central bank intervention in the asset markets is a more effective means of restoring full employment than fiscal policy. In either scenario, increased government consumption will not be effective at maintaining full employment in the face of permanently depressed beliefs about the value of private assets.

中文翻译：

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信念对塑造宏观经济成果的重要性

摘要

在宏观经济思想史的过去30年中，宏观经济不确定学派使用具有不确定性均衡的一般均衡模型来理解信念在塑造宏观经济结果中的独立作用。在本文中，我将回顾不确定性议程的最新进展，即凯恩斯主义搜索理论，我通过两种不同的方式将自我实现的信念引入凯恩斯主义的搜索模型来推进这一议程。该模型的一个变体是由投资支出的外部过程驱动的。如果投资是外生的，恢复充分就业的唯一方法是用公共投资代替私人投资。该模型的第二种变体是受消费者信心驱动的。如果消费者的信心是外生的，那么财政或中央银行对资产市场的干预是比财政政策更为有效的恢复充分就业的手段。在这两种情况下，面对对私有资产价值的长期沮丧的信念，增加政府消费将无法有效维持充分就业。