The 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the myriad other crises confronting economies around the world, exposed the inadequacies of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. These models not only hadn’t predicted the crisis, its occurrence was completely outside of their framework. The framework assumes there are no macroeconomic inconsistencies—all plans are realized, all budget constraints honoured. But after each instance in which that assumption is proved wrong, say in a crisis, the DSGE models assume that kind of event won’t happen again. By contrast, our framework explains why these inconsistencies arise and investigates the consequences, shows how large changes in the aggregate demand could trigger inconsistencies, explains the origins of such changes, and explains why decentralized market forces may be disequilibrating. We identify the crucial departures from the Arrow–Debreu assumptions underlying our results. We analyse the policy implications of this alternative theory, which typically are distinctly different from those of the standard model.

中文翻译：

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建立具有随机性的动态不平衡理论

2008年的全球金融危机以及全球经济面临的其他众多危机暴露了动态随机一般均衡模型的不足之处。这些模型不仅没有预测危机，而且危机的发生完全在其框架之外。该框架假设不存在宏观经济矛盾，所有计划都已实现，所有预算约束都得到了兑现。但是，在每次假设都被证明是错误的情况下（例如在危机中），DSGE模型假设该事件不会再次发生。相比之下，我们的框架解释了为什么会出现这些不一致之处并进行调查，显示了总需求的巨大变化可能引发不一致情况，解释了这种变化的根源，并解释了为什么分散的市场力量可能会导致失去平衡。我们确定了偏离我们结果基础的Arrow–Debreu假设的关键偏离。我们分析了这种替代理论的政策含义，通常与标准模型有明显的不同。