We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February−March 2020 stock market crash induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during the subsequent partial stock market recovery. We surveyed retail investors who are clients of Vanguard at three points in time: 1) on February 11–12, around the all-time stock market high, 2) on March 11–12, after the stock market had collapsed by over 20%, and 3) on April 16–17, after the market had rallied 25% from its lowest point. Following the crash, the average investor turned more pessimistic about the short-run performance of both the stock market and the real economy. Investors also perceived higher probabilities of both further extreme stock market declines and large declines in short-run real economic activity. In contrast, investor expectations about long-run (10-y) economic and stock market outcomes remained largely unchanged, and, if anything, improved. Disagreement among investors about economic and stock market outcomes also increased substantially following the stock market crash, with the disagreement persisting through the partial market recovery. Those respondents who were the most optimistic in February saw the largest decline in expectations and sold the most equity. Those respondents who were the most pessimistic in February largely left their portfolios unchanged during and after the crash.

我们分析了在 COVID-19 大流行引起的 2020 年 2 月至 3 月股市崩盘期间以及随后的部分股市复苏期间，投资者对经济增长和股票回报的预期如何变化。我们在三个时间点对作为 Vanguard 客户的散户投资者进行了调查：1) 2 月 11-12 日，股市历史高点附近，2) 3 月 11-12 日，股市暴跌超过 20% 之后，以及 3) 4 月 16 日至 17 日，在市场从最低点上涨 25% 之后。崩盘后，普通投资者对股市和实体经济的短期表现更加悲观。投资者还认为，进一步极端股市下跌和短期实体经济活动大幅下滑的可能性更高。相比之下，投资者对长期（10 年）经济和股市结果的预期基本保持不变，如果有的话，也有所改善。股市崩盘后，投资者对经济和股市结果的分歧也大幅增加，这种分歧在市场部分复苏期间持续存在。2 月份最乐观的受访者的预期下降幅度最大，出售的股票也最多。那些在 2 月份最为悲观的受访者在崩盘期间和之后基本上没有改变他们的投资组合。随着市场的部分复苏，分歧仍然存在。2 月份最乐观的受访者的预期下降幅度最大，出售的股票也最多。那些在 2 月份最为悲观的受访者在崩盘期间和之后基本上没有改变他们的投资组合。随着市场的部分复苏，分歧仍然存在。2 月份最乐观的受访者的预期下降幅度最大，出售的股票也最多。那些在 2 月份最为悲观的受访者在崩盘期间和之后基本上没有改变他们的投资组合。