Climate change is considered to be a leading cause of species extinction, yet the likely effects of climate change on geographic distributions and conservation status of many threatened African plants have not seen detailed evaluation. Here, we used ecological niche modelling approaches to explore and evaluate climate change effects on potential geographic distributions of plants of the threatened West-Central African genus Talbotiella. Our models showed that suitability was lower in the northern parts of its range in West Africa and at it's southern extremes in West-Central Africa. Areas of West Africa between Liberia and southwestern Ghana were identified as potentially suitable areas where new populations or species of the genus could be discovered. Our model transfers to future conditions showed range shifts and contractions in the geographic distribution of the genus; species of the genus are threatened by additional factors such as habitat loss or degradation, agriculture and development of industrial infrastructure. Although species of the genus will likely persist in protected areas, conservation efforts should also include ex situ conservation approaches, particularly as regards individual species in the genus. This study shows how niche modelling approaches could be used to enhance the conservation and discovery of African biodiversity.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对受威胁的中西部非洲特有属Talbotiella的潜在地理分布的影响

气候变化被认为是物种灭绝的主要原因，但是气候变化对许多受威胁的非洲植物的地理分布和保护状况的可能影响尚未得到详细评估。在这里，我们使用生态位建模方法来探索和评估气候变化对受威胁的中西部非洲Talbotiella属植物的潜在地理分布的影响。。我们的模型显示，在西非范围的北部和中西部非洲的南部极端，适应性较低。利比里亚和加纳西南之间的西非地区被确定为可能合适的地区，在那里可以发现新的种群或物种。我们向未来条件的模型转移表明，该属的地理分布范围发生了变化和收缩。该属的物种受到其他因素的威胁，例如栖息地的丧失或退化，农业和工业基础设施的发展。尽管该属的种可能会继续存在于保护区内，但保护工作还应包括非原生境。保护方法，特别是有关属中的单个物种的保护方法。这项研究表明，如何利用利基模型方法来加强对非洲生物多样性的保护和发现。