Projections of river floods in Europe using EURO‐CORDEX, CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations,International Journal of Climatology

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Projections of river floods in Europe using EURO‐CORDEX, CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-20 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7014
F. Di Sante _{1,

2} , E. Coppola ₁ , F. Giorgi ₁

Affiliation

A large ensemble of hydroclimatic simulations is used to simulate the occurrence of river floods over Europe in a climate change context. A river routing model derived from a distributed hydrological model (CHyM) is forced with 44 EURO‐CORDEX, 13 CMIP5 and 7 CMIP6 simulations to assess the effects of climate change on the flood magnitude under two different scenarios. The impact of climate change is evaluated using a 100‐year return period discharge indicator (Q100). Results show a decrease in magnitude of Q100 flood events over the Mediterranean, Scandinavia and north eastern Europe. This latter signal appears particularly robust and in contrast to the projected mean flow signal, which is shown to increase by the end of the century in response to increased mean precipitation. The reduction of snow accumulation during winter induced by a large increase of late winter temperatures is the main reason behind the decrease of floods over the North Eastern regions. An opposite signal is projected over Great Britain, Ireland, Northern Italy and Western Europe, where a robust signal of flood magnitude increase is evident, being driven by an increase of extreme precipitation events. All these simulations are intended for use in impact assessment studies towards the development of suitable response options.

中文翻译：

使用EURO‐CORDEX，CMIP5和CMIP6模拟来预测欧洲河流洪水

大量的水文气候模拟被用来模拟在气候变化背景下欧洲河流洪水的发生。根据44种EURO‐CORDEX，13种CMIP5和7种CMIP6模拟，强制采用源自分布式水文模型（CHyM）的河道模型，以评估两种不同情况下气候变化对洪水强度的影响。使用100年回归期排放指标（Q100）评估气候变化的影响。结果表明，地中海，斯堪的纳维亚半岛和东北欧的Q100洪水事件数量有所减少。后一个信号显得特别健壮，并且与预计的平均流量信号形成对比，后者在世纪末响应于平均降水的增加而显示出增加。冬季后期气温大幅度上升导致冬季积雪减少，这是东北地区洪水减少的主要原因。在大不列颠，爱尔兰，意大利北部和西欧，预计将出现相反的信号，在极端降雨事件增加的驱使下，洪水强度明显增加的迹象很明显。所有这些模拟旨在用于影响评估研究中，以开发合适的应对方案。受极端降水事件增加的驱动。所有这些模拟旨在用于影响评估研究中，以开发合适的应对方案。受极端降水事件增加的驱动。所有这些模拟旨在用于影响评估研究中，以开发合适的应对方案。

更新日期：2021-01-20

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