Distribution systems in the US are commonly supported by wood utility poles. Since wood poles may experience substantial decay rates, current standards specify a strength-based maintenance program for pole replacement regardless of the poles’ vulnerability and importance in the system. While state-of-the-art methods have developed risk-based metrics to guide system hardening decisions, such metrics are analyzed for the current conditions of the system. In this context, the potential of a stochastic series of hazards over extended horizons and the subsequent effects on the resilience of systems have been largely neglected. To address these limitations, a risk-based methodology is proposed for quantifying the life cycle resilience of power distribution systems. To project pole vulnerability, a recursive approach is developed that captures the stochasticity of precedent failures and subsequent corrective actions over extended horizons. Furthermore, a risk-based replacement index called Expected Outage Reduction (EOR) is introduced that estimates the expected power outage reduction if an existing pole is replaced by a new pole. The application of the proposed method for life cycle resilience analysis and management of a realistic distribution system subjected to stochastic hurricanes indicates that EOR can improve the cumulative life cycle resilience by up to 22.3% over 70 years.

在美国，配电系统通常由木制电线杆支撑。由于木杆可能会经历相当大的衰减速率，因此当前标准指定了基于强度的维护程序来更换杆，无论杆在系统中的脆弱性和重要性如何。虽然最先进的方法已经开发了基于风险的度量标准来指导系统加固决策，但仍会针对系统的当前状况分析此类度量标准。在这种情况下，大范围地忽略了一系列随机风险的潜在可能性以及对系统弹性的后续影响。为了解决这些局限性，提出了一种基于风险的方法来量化配电系统的生命周期弹性。为了预测极点漏洞，开发了一种递归方法，该方法可以捕获先例失败的随机性以及扩展后的后续纠正措施。此外，引入了一种基于风险的替代指数，称为“预期停电减少（EOR）”，如果使用新的磁极替换了现有的磁极，则该指数将估计预期的停电减少量。所提出的方法在遭受随机飓风影响的实际分配系统的生命周期弹性分析和管理中的应用表明，EOR可以在70年内将累积生命周期弹性提高多达22.3％。引入了一种基于风险的替代指数，称为“预期停电减少（EOR）”，如果使用新的磁极替换了现有的磁极，该指数将估计预期的停电减少量。所提出的方法在遭受随机飓风影响的实际分配系统的生命周期弹性分析和管理中的应用表明，EOR可以在70年内将累积生命周期弹性提高多达22.3％。引入了一种基于风险的替代指数，称为“预期停电减少（EOR）”，如果使用新的磁极替换了现有的磁极，该指数将估计预期的停电减少量。所提出的方法在遭受随机飓风影响的实际分配系统的生命周期弹性分析和管理中的应用表明，EOR可以在70年内将累积生命周期弹性提高多达22.3％。