The potential response of flow regimes to future climate has crucial importance for a variety of practical applications, such as sustainable water management and ecological asset preservation. For this study, multi-site investigations of alterations in flow regimes under projected climate change were performed for one of the largest watersheds in Morocco, the Bouregreg Watershed (BW). Future daily streamflow was simulated using the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced by climatic data from CMIP5 model outputs. Simulations were carried out for two periods: 2035–2050 (2040s), and 2085–2100 (2090s) under two emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future streamflow regimes were examined in accordance with an Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) analysis, while being confronted with baseline flow data. Mean temperature has been predicted to increase by up to 2.79 °C in the 2090s (RCP8.5), and a higher variability in rainfall regime is expected. The results indicate that, under future changes in climate patterns, flow regimes in BW will be altered. However, the extent of alteration will be reflected unevenly among the four streams of the study watershed. The IHA analysis revealed that most of the river network will experience both a decrease in monthly flow magnitude (mostly in November and December), and an increase (dominantly in February and March) when compared to baseline. The frequency of flash pulses, and the number of zero-flow days are also expected to increase. Most of the projected alterations were estimated to become very significant in the 2090s under the RCP8.5 scenario. The potential ecological implications were also analysed, and the most sensitive streams of BW were identified to guide local water planning and ecological preservation strategies.

流动状况对未来气候的潜在响应对于各种实际应用至关重要，例如可持续水管理和生态资产保护。在本研究中，对摩洛哥最大的流域之一的Bouregreg流域（BW）进行了多站点调查，研究了预估的气候变化条件下流量变化的情况。利用生态水文模型土壤和水评估工具（SWAT），通过来自CMIP5模型输出的气候数据对未来的日流量进行了模拟。在两个排放情景：RCP4.5和RCP8.5下，对两个时期进行了模拟：2035-2050（2040s）和2085-2100（2090s）。在面对基线流量数据的同时，根据水文蚀变指标（IHA）分析了未来的流量模式。到2090年代，平均温度预计将升高2.79°C（RCP8.5），并且降雨状况的变化性也将更高。结果表明，随着未来气候模式的变化，BW的流动方式将发生变化。但是，变化的程度将在研究分水岭的四个溪流之间不均匀地反映出来。IHA分析显示，与基准线相比，大多数河流网络的月流量都将减少（主要在11月和12月），而增加（主要是2月和3月）。闪光脉冲的频率和零流量天数也有望增加。在RCP8.5情景下，大多数预计的变更预计在2090年代将变得非常重要。还对潜在的生态影响进行了分析，