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Detecting seasonal transient correlations between populations of the West Nile Virus vector Culex sp. and temperatures with wavelet coherence analysis
Ecological Informatics ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101216
Petros Damos , Pablo Caballero

Cullex sp. is one of the most important mosquito disease vector and climate is considered to be a key factor affecting its population dynamics. In this study we use straightforward techniques based on correlations and wavelet analysis to determine the non-trivial associations between Culex sp. mosquito abundance and weather variables (lagged population abundance, mean temperatures, rain and wind speed) in Northern Greece during two successive years. In particular, mosquito abundances were examined for collinearity using Pearson's correlation matrices and redundant or low correlated variables were excluded from further analyses. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to fit normalized mosquito abundance weekly counts as the dependent variable to the independent variables including: mean temperatures, rain as well as lagged mosquito populations. There was a high and positive correlation between temperature and mosquito abundance during both observation years (r = 0.6). However, a very poor correlation was observed between rain and weekly mosquito abundances (r = 0.29), as well as between wind speed (r = 0.29), respectively. Additionally, according to the multiple linear regression model the effect of temperature, was significant. The continuous power spectrum of the mosquito abundance counts and mean temperatures depict in most cases similar power for periods which are close to 1 week, indicating the point of the lowest variance of the time series, although appearing on slight different moments of time. The cross wavelet coherent analysis showed that inter weekly cycles with a period between 2 and 3 weeks between mosquito abundance and temperature were coherent mostly during the first and the last weeks of the season. Hence, the wavelet analysis show a progressive oscillation in mosquito occurrences with time, which is higher at the start and the end of the season. Moreover, in contrast with standard methods of analysis, wavelets can provide useful insights into the time-resolved oscillation structure of mosquito data and accompanying revealing a non-stationary association with temperature.



中文翻译:

检测西尼罗河病毒载体库克斯菌种群之间的季节性瞬态相关性。小波相干分析的温度和温度

Cullex sp。是最重要的蚊媒媒介之一,气候被认为是影响其种群动态的关键因素。在这项研究中,我们使用基于相关性和小波分析的简单技术来确定Culex之间的非平凡关联sp。希腊北部连续两年的蚊子丰度和天气变量(滞后人口丰度,平均温度,雨水和风速)。特别是,使用Pearson相关矩阵检查了蚊虫的共线性,并且多余或低相关的变量被排除在进一步分析之外。进行了多元线性回归分析,以将归一化蚊虫的每周计数作为因变量与自变量进行拟合,这些自变量包括:平均温度,降雨和滞后的蚊虫种群。在两个观察年中,温度和蚊虫的丰度之间存在高度正相关(r  = 0.6)。但是,观察到降雨与每周蚊子丰度之间的相关性很差(r = 0.29)和风速之间(r = 0.29)。另外,根据多元线性回归模型,温度的影响是显着的。在大多数情况下,接近1周的时间,蚊子丰度计数和平均温度的连续功率谱描述了相似的功率,表明时间序列的最低方差点,尽管出现的时间略有不同。交叉小波相干分析显示,蚊虫丰度与温度之间的2至3周之间的每周间隔周期在该季节的第一周和最后一周大部分是相干的。因此,小波分析表明蚊子的发生随着时间的推移逐渐振荡,在季节的开始和结束时更高。此外,

更新日期:2021-02-05
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