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Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe
Advances in Difference Equations ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-20 , DOI: 10.1186/s13662-021-03213-2
Abdon Atangana , Seda İğret Araz

Using the existing collected data from European and African countries, we present a statistical analysis of forecast of the future number of daily deaths and infections up to 10 September 2020. We presented numerous statistical analyses of collected data from both continents using numerous existing statistical theories. Our predictions show the possibility of the second wave of spread in Europe in the worse scenario and an exponential growth in the number of infections in Africa. The projection of statistical analysis leads us to introducing an extended version of the well-blancmange function to further capture the spread with fractal properties. A mathematical model depicting the spread with nine sub-classes is considered, first converted to a stochastic system, where the existence and uniqueness are presented. Then the model is extended to the concept of nonlocal operators; due to nonlinearity, a modified numerical scheme is suggested and used to present numerical simulations. The suggested mathematical model is able to predict two to three waves of the spread in the near future.



中文翻译:

使用随机和确定性方法建模和预测COVID-19的传播:非洲和欧洲

利用来自欧洲和非洲国家的现有收集数据,我们提供了对截至2020年9月10日日均死亡和感染人数的预测的统计分析。我们使用大量现有统计理论,对来自两个大洲的收集数据进行了大量统计分析。我们的预测表明,在更糟的情况下,欧洲第二波传播的可能性以及非洲的感染数量呈指数增长。统计分析的预测使我们引入了完善功能的扩展版本,以进一步捕获具有分形特性的价差。考虑了一个数学模型,该模型描述了具有9个子类的传播,首先将其转换为一个随机系统,在其中给出存在性和唯一性。然后将该模型扩展到非局部算子的概念。由于非线性,提出了一种改进的数值方案,并用于提出数值模拟。建议的数学模型能够在不远的将来预测两到三波的传播。

更新日期:2021-01-20
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