The fertility–development relationship is bi-directional, context-specific, multi-phased and inconsistent over time. Indian districts provide an ideal setting to study this association due to their size, diversity and disparity in socioeconomic development. The objective of this study was to understand the association of fertility and socioeconomic development among the 640 districts of India. Data were drawn from multiple sources: Censuses of India 2001 and 2011; DLHS-2; NFHS-4; and other published sources. A district-level data file for Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and a set of developmental indices were prepared for the 640 districts for 2001 and 2016. Computation of a composite index (District Development Index, DDI), Ordinary Least Squares, Two Stage Least Squares and panel regressions were employed. By 2016, almost half of all Indian districts had attained below-replacement fertility, and 15% had a TFR of above 3.0. The DDI of India increased from 0.399 in 2001 to 0.511 by 2016 and showed large variations across districts. The correlation coefficient between TFR and DDI was –0.658 in 2001 and –0.640 in 2016. Districts with a DDI of between 0.3 and 0.6 in 2001 had experienced a fertility decline of more than 20%. The fertility–development relationship was found to be strongly negative, convex and consistent over time, but the level of association varied regionally. For any given level of DDI, fertility in 2016 was lower than in 2001; and the association was stronger in districts with a DDI below 0.45. The negative convex association between the two was prominent in the northern, central and eastern regions and the curves were flatter in the west, south and north-east. The increasing number of districts with low fertility and low development draws much attention. Some outlying districts in the north-eastern states had high TFR and high DDI (>0.6). Based on the findings, a multi-layered strategy in districts with low socioeconomic development is recommended. Additional investment in education, child health, employment generation and provisioning of contraceptives would improve the human development to achieve India’s demographic goals.

中文翻译：

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2001-2016 年印度各地区的生育率转变和社会经济发展

生育力-发展关系是双向的、因地制宜的、多阶段的和随时间变化的。由于其规模、多样性和社会经济发展的差异，印度地区为研究这种关联提供了理想的环境。本研究的目的是了解印度 640 个地区的生育率与社会经济发展之间的关联。数据来自多个来源：2001 年和 2011 年印度人口普查；DLHS-2；NFHS-4；和其他已发布的来源。为 2001 年和 2016 年的 640 个地区准备了总生育率 (TFR) 的地区级数据文件和一组发展指数。计算综合指数（地区发展指数，DDI），普通最小二乘，两阶段最小采用平方和面板回归。到 2016 年，几乎一半的印度地区的生育率低于更替水平，15% 的地区的总生育率高于 3.0。印度的 DDI 从 2001 年的 0.399 增加到 2016 年的 0.511，并且显示出跨地区的巨大差异。TFR 和 DDI 之间的相关系数在 2001 年和 2016 年分别为 –0.658 和 –0.640。2001 年 DDI 介于 0.3 和 0.6 之间的地区的生育率下降了 20% 以上。随着时间的推移，生育率与发展的关系被发现是强烈的、凸的和一致的，但关联程度因地区而异。对于任何给定的 DDI 水平，2016 年的生育率都低于 2001 年；在 DDI 低于 0.45 的地区，该关联更强。两者之间的负凸关联在北部、中部和东部地区突出，在西部地区曲线更平坦，南部和东北部。生育率低、发展水平低的地区越来越多，引起了广泛关注。东北部各州的一些边远地区具有高 TFR 和高 DDI (>0.6)。根据调查结果，建议在社会经济发展水平较低的地区实施多层次战略。在教育、儿童健康、创造就业机会和提供避孕药具方面的额外投资将改善人类发展，以实现印度的人口目标。