Ice‐jam flood risk management requires new approaches to reduce flood damages. Although many structural and non‐structural measures are implemented to reduce the impacts of ice‐jam flooding, there are still many challenges in identifying appropriate strategies to reduce the ice‐jam flood risk along northern rivers. The main purpose of this study is to provide a novel methodological framework to assess the feasibility of various ice‐jam flood mitigation measures based on risk analysis. A total of three ice‐jam flood mitigation measures (artificial breakup, sediment dredging and dike installation) were examined using a stochastic modelling framework for the potential to reduce the ice‐jam flood risk along the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray. An ensemble of hundreds of backwater level profiles was used to construct ice‐jam flood hazard maps to estimate expected annual damages, using depth‐damage curves for structural and content damages, within the downtown area of Fort McMurray. The results show that, while sediment dredging may be able to reduce a certain level of expected annual damages in the town, and artificial breakup and a dike with a crest elevation of 250 m a.s.l. can be the most effective measures to reduce the amount of expected annual damages.

中文翻译：

---

评估冰凌洪灾缓解措施的影响

冰封洪水风险管理需要新的方法来减少洪水的破坏。尽管已采取许多结构性和非结构性措施来减少冰冻洪水的影响，但是在确定适当的策略以减少北部河流冰冻洪水风险方面仍然存在许多挑战。这项研究的主要目的是提供一个新颖的方法框架，以基于风险分析的方法评估各种冰凌洪灾缓解措施的可行性。使用随机模型框架共检查了三种缓解冰堵洪水的措施（人为破坏，泥沙疏and和堤防安装），以降低麦克默里堡阿萨巴斯卡河沿岸的冰堵洪水风险。在麦克默里堡市区内，使用数百个回水高度剖面的整体图来构建冰冻的洪水灾害图，以利用结构和内容物破坏的深度破坏曲线来估计预期的年度破坏。结果表明，尽管泥沙淤泥可以减少城镇预期的年度破坏程度，但人为破坏和最高海拔250 m asl的堤防可能是减少预期数量的最有效措施。年度赔偿。