General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature (SST) over the historical period show systematic global shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) variations uncorrelated with global surface temperature (known as “pattern effect”). Here, we show that a single parameter that quantifies the difference in SSTs between regions of tropical deep convection and the tropical or global average (Δ^conv) captures the time‐varying “pattern effect” in the simulations using the PCMDI/AMIPII SST recommended for CMIP6. In particular, a large positive trend in the 1980s–1990s in Δ^conv explains the change of sign to a strongly negative SWCRE feedback since the late 1970s. In these decades, the regions of deep convection warm about +50% more than the tropical average. Such an amplification is rarely observed in forced coupled atmosphere‐ocean GCM simulations, where the amplified warming is typically about +10%. During the post 2000 global warming hiatus Δ^conv shows little change, and the more recent period of resumed global warming is too short to robustly detect trends. In the prescribed SST simulations, Δ^conv is forced by the SST difference between warmer and colder regions. An index thereof (SST^#) evaluated for six SST reconstructions shows similar trends for the satellite era, but the difference between the pre‐ and the satellite era is substantially larger in the PCMDI/AMIPII SSTs than in the other reconstructions. Quantification of the cloud feedback depends critically on small changes in the shape of the SST probability density distribution. These sensitivities underscore how essential highly accurate, persistent, and stable global climate records are to determine the cloud feedback.

中文翻译：

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全球变暖的特殊轨迹

在历史时期内使用规定的观测海表温度（SST）进行的一般环流模型（GCM）模拟显示，系统性的全球短波云辐射效应（SWCRE）变化与全球表面温度不相关（称为“模式效应”）。在这里，我们显示了一个量化热带深对流区域与热带或全球平均值（^Δconv）之间SST差异的单一参数，可以在使用推荐的PCMDI / AMIPII SST的模拟中捕获时变的“模式效应”。 CMIP6。特别是在1980年代至1990年代，^Δconv有很大的正趋势解释了自1970年代末以来，符号转换为SWCRE反馈严重不足的情况。在这几十年中，深对流地区的温暖程度比热带地区平均高出+ 50％。在强迫耦合大气海洋GCM模拟中很少观察到这种放大，在这种模拟中，放大的变暖通常约为+ 10％。在2000年后的全球变暖裂隙^Δconv几乎没有变化，而且最近恢复的全球变暖时期太短，无法可靠地发现趋势。在规定的SST模拟中，^Δconv受较热和较冷区域之间的SST差所强迫。其索引（SST ^＃对六个SST重建进行评估的结果显示，卫星时代的趋势相似，但PCMDI / AMIPII SST的卫星时代与卫星时代之间的差异要比其他重建大得多。云反馈的量化关键取决于SST概率密度分布形状的微小变化。这些敏感性凸显了高度准确，持久和稳定的全球气候记录对确定云层反馈的重要性。