Beyond forest succession: A gap model to study ecosystem functioning and tree community composition under climate change,Functional Ecology

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Beyond forest succession: A gap model to study ecosystem functioning and tree community composition under climate change
Functional Ecology ( IF 4.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-18 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13760
Xavier Morin ₁ , Harald Bugmann ₂ , François de Coligny ₃ , Nicolas Martin‐StPaul ₄ , Maxime Cailleret ₅ , Jean‐Marc Limousin ₁ , Jean‐Marc Ourcival ₁ , Bernard Prevosto ₅ , Guillaume Simioni ₄ , Maude Toigo ₁ , Michel Vennetier ₅ , Eugénie Catteau ₆ , Joannès Guillemot _{7,

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Affiliation

Climate change impacts forest functioning and dynamics, and large uncertainties remain regarding the interactions between species composition, demographic processes and environmental drivers. There are few robust tools available to link these processes, which precludes accurate projections and recommendations for long‐term forest management. Forest gap models present a balance between complexity and generality and are widely used in predictive forest ecology. However, their relevance to tackle questions about the links between species composition, climate and forest functioning is unclear. In this regard, demonstrating the ability of gap models to predict the growth of forest stands at the annual parameterization scale resolution—representing a sensitive and integrated signal of tree functioning and mortality risk—appears as a fundamental step.
In this study, we aimed at assessing the ability of a gap model to accurately predict forest growth in the short term and potential community composition in the long term, across a wide range of species and environmental conditions. To do so, we present the gap model ForCEEPS, calibrated using an original parameterization procedure for the main tree species in France.
ForCEEPS was shown to satisfactorily predict forest annual growth (averaged over a few years) at the plot level from mountain to Mediterranean climates, regardless of the species. Such an accuracy was not gained at the cost of losing precision for long‐term predictions, as the model showed a strong ability to predict potential community compositions. The mechanistic relevance of ForCEEPS parameterization was explored by showing the congruence between the values of key model parameter and species functional traits.
We further showed that accounting for the spatial configuration of crowns within forest stands, the effects of climatic constraints and the variability of shade tolerances in the species community are all crucial to better predict short‐term productivity with gap models.
Synthesis. The dual ability of predicting short‐term functioning and long‐term community composition, as well as the balance between generality and realism (i.e. predicting accuracy) of the new generation of gap models may open great perspectives for the exploration of the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationships, species coexistence mechanisms and the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems.

中文翻译：

超越森林演替：研究气候变化下生态系统功能和树木群落组成的缺口模型

气候变化影响着森林的功能和动态，物种组成，人口统计过程和环境驱动因素之间的相互作用仍然存在很大的不确定性。很少有健壮的工具可用于链接这些过程，从而无法为长期森林管理提供准确的预测和建议。森林缺口模型提出了复杂性和普遍性之间的平衡，并广泛用于预测性森林生态学中。但是，它们对于解决物种组成，气候和森林功能之间的联系的相关性尚不清楚。在这方面，证明差距模型以年度参数化尺度分辨率预测林分生长的能力（代表树木功能和死亡风险的敏感而综合的信号）似乎是一个基本步骤。
在这项研究中，我们旨在评估差距模型在各种物种和环境条件下短期内准确预测森林生长以及长期内潜在群落组成的能力。为此，我们介绍了针对法国主要树种使用原始参数化程序校准的缺口模型ForCEEPS。
事实证明，ForCEEPS可以令人满意地预测从山区到地中海气候的地块级别的森林年均增长（几年内的平均值），而与物种无关。由于该模型显示出强大的预测潜在群落组成的能力，因此不能以长期预测的精度为代价获得这种精度。通过显示关键模型参数值与物种功能性状之间的一致性，探索了ForCEEPS参数化的机械相关性。
我们进一步表明，考虑林分内树冠的空间配置，气候约束的影响以及物种群落中树荫容忍度的变化，对于利用差距模型更好地预测短期生产力而言，都是至关重要的。
综合。预测短期功能和长期社区组成的双重能力，以及新一代差距模型的普遍性和现实性之间的平衡（即预测准确性），可能为探索生物多样性-生态系统功能开辟广阔的前景。关系，物种共存机制以及气候变化对森林生态系统的影响。

更新日期：2021-01-18

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