Ecologists have built numerous models to project how climate change will impact rangeland vegetation, but these projections of future changes are difficult to validate, making their utility for land management planning unclear. In the absence of direct validation, researchers can ask whether projections from different models are consistent. High consistency across models, especially those based on different assumptions, would increase confidence in using projections for planning. Here, we analyzed 19 models of climate change impacts on sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.), cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), pinyon-juniper (Pinus L. spp. and Juniperus L. spp.), and forage production on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands in the US Intermountain West. These models consistently projected the potential for pinyon-juniper declines and forage production increases. In contrast, models of cheatgrass mainly projected no climate change impacts, while sagebrush models projected no change in most areas and declines in southern extremes. In most instances, vegetation projections from high- and low-emission scenarios differed only slightly.

The projected vegetation impacts have important management implications for agencies such as the BLM. Pinyon-juniper declines would reduce the need to control pinyon-juniper encroachment, and increases in forage production could benefit livestock and wildlife populations in some regions. Sagebrush conservation and restoration projects may be challenged in areas projected to experience sagebrush declines. Similar projections from high- and low-emission scenario models may increase confidence to consider model projections in planning. However, projected vegetation impacts may also interact with increasing future wildfire risk in ways single-response models do not anticipate. In particular, forage production increases could increase management challenges related to fire.

生态学家已经建立了许多模型来预测气候变化将如何影响牧场植被，但是这些对未来变化的预测很难得到证实，因此其在土地管理规划中的效用尚不清楚。在没有直接验证的情况下，研究人员可以询问不同模型的预测是否一致。各个模型之间的高度一致性，尤其是基于不同假设的模型，将增加使用预测进行规划的信心。在这里，我们分析了19种气候变化模型对鼠尾草（Artemisia tridentata Nutt。），白茅草（Bromus tectorum L.），松柏（Pinus L. spp。和Juniperus）的影响。L. spp。）和美国西部山区间土地管理局（BLM）土地上的牧草生产。这些模型一致地预测了松柏和牧草产量增加的潜力。相比之下，无茅草模型主要预测不会对气候变化产生影响，而鼠尾草模型预测大多数地区不会发生变化，而南部极端地区则下降。在大多数情况下，高排放和低排放情景下的植被预测仅略有不同。

预计的植被影响对BLM等机构具有重要的管理意义。Pinyon-Juniper的下降将减少控制Pinyon-Juniper入侵的需求，而牧草产量的增加可能使某些地区的牲畜和野生动物种群受益。在预计遭受鼠尾草衰落的地区，鼠尾草的保护和恢复项目可能会面临挑战。高排放和低排放情景模型的类似预测可能会增加在规划中考虑模型预测的信心。但是，预计的植被影响也可能以单响应模型无法预期的方式与未来野火风险的增加相互作用。特别是，牧草产量的增加可能会增加与火灾有关的管理挑战。